Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Carbon capture in 2026: 45Q economics, project pipeline, and the gap between announcements and tonnes stored
The CCUS sector has moved from policy promise to a real but uneven build-out, with roughly 50 facilities operational, a 392-project pipeline that targets seven hundred million tonnes per year by 2030, and a 45Q stack that finally pays enough to close most point-source projects but still strains for direct air capture.
Global CCUS capacity sits near fifty million tonnes per year of operational injection across about fifty facilities, with a Global CCS Institute pipeline of 392 projects pointing at roughly seven hundred million tonnes per year if every announced project reaches FID and operates at design rate. The IRA-amended Section 45Q credit, eighty-f...
Maritime decarbonization 2026: ammonia and methanol after the IMO net zero framework
MEPC 83 set a global fuel intensity charge starting USD 100 per tonne CO2 equivalent in 2027, with EU FuelEU layered on top. The orderbook reads 17 percent LNG, 6 percent methanol, 3 percent ammonia. Maersk and CMA CGM have made opposite bets.
The IMO adopted the GHG net zero framework at MEPC 83 in April 2025, mandatory from January 1, 2027. It sets a USD 100 per tonne CO2 equivalent fuel intensity charge above the base trajectory and a USD 380 per tonne Direct Compliance Unit penalty on the stringent gap, the first universal carbon price on shipping. EU FuelEU Maritime, in fo...
US Fertilizer Through 2026: Potash, Ammonia, and the Affordability Reset
US growers consumed roughly 21 million tonnes of nitrogen, 4.2 million of phosphate, and 4.5 million of potash in 2024 against a price stack that has retraced two thirds of the 2022 peak. The structural questions are import dependence (95 percent for potash), the cost wedge that Henry Hub gives CF Industries and Koch over Yara and OCI, and how Section 232 actions on Russia and Morocco interact with a USDA net farm income line that fell from 185 billion dollars in 2023 to 140 billion in 2024.
US fertilizer consumption in 2024 totaled approximately 21.0 million tonnes of nitrogen, 4.2 million of phosphate (P2O5), and 4.5 million of potash (K2O), per USDA Economic Research Service. Prices have retraced sharply from the 2022 invasion peak: muriate of potash (MOP) FOB Saskatchewan landed near 300 dollars per tonne in Q4 2024 again...
Korea's 11th BPLE in 2026: nuclear, renewables, and the KEPCO balance sheet
The 11th Basic Plan for Long term Electricity Supply locks in a higher nuclear share alongside accelerated renewables, but the speed of the transition is constrained less by policy ambition than by KEPCO's wrecked balance sheet and the unresolved tariff politics behind it.
South Korea finalized its 11th Basic Plan for Long term Electricity Supply (BPLE) in early 2025 and entered the implementation phase under a new administration in 2026. The plan targets a 35.6 percent nuclear share and a 32.9 percent clean and renewable share by 2038, anchored by Hanul, Sin Hanul, and a domestic SMR pilot. The execution c...