Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Carbon capture in 2026: 45Q economics, project pipeline, and the gap between announcements and tonnes stored
The CCUS sector has moved from policy promise to a real but uneven build-out, with roughly 50 facilities operational, a 392-project pipeline that targets seven hundred million tonnes per year by 2030, and a 45Q stack that finally pays enough to close most point-source projects but still strains for direct air capture.
Global CCUS capacity sits near fifty million tonnes per year of operational injection across about fifty facilities, with a Global CCS Institute pipeline of 392 projects pointing at roughly seven hundred million tonnes per year if every announced project reaches FID and operates at design rate. The IRA-amended Section 45Q credit, eighty-f...
Cement After CBAM: The 2026 Decarbonization Capital Stack
Cement is 7 to 8 percent of global CO2 and 4.1 billion tonnes of output. The 2026 EU CBAM definitive period, IRA 45Q at 85 dollars per tonne, and the first commercial CCS kiln at Brevik rewrite the capital stack for clinker, clay, and capture.
Global cement production reached roughly 4.1 billion tonnes in 2024 (USGS MCS 2025), led by China at about 2.0 billion tonnes, India at 390 million tonnes, and the United States at 91 million tonnes. Average CO2 intensity near 0.6 tonnes per tonne of cement places the sector at 7 to 8 percent of global emissions and on the GCCA trajectory...
The electric vehicle recalibration of 2024 to 2026: how the S curve flattened in the West, why China kept going, and where margins, batteries, and policy reset
Global plug in sales hit 17.1 million in 2024 and 22 percent share, but US growth stalled at 1.3 million, Europe contracted, and OEMs from Ford to Volvo wrote down EV programs even as China cleared 11 million units and BYD shipped 4.27 million vehicles.
Electric vehicle adoption did not collapse, it bifurcated. The IEA reports 17.1 million plug in sales in 2024, 22 percent of new car sales globally, with China alone at 11.3 million units and roughly 47 percent domestic share. Europe contracted to about 3.0 million plug ins as ACEA registrations fell, and the United States crawled to 1.3 ...
Next generation geothermal in 2026: Fervo's Cape Station, Eavor's Geretsried, and the hyperscaler offtake that ended the dormancy
Enhanced geothermal systems and closed loop designs broke into commercial operation between 2024 and 2026. Fervo, Eavor, Sage, and Quaise have converted shale era drilling, the IRA tax stack, BLM lease acceleration, and Google plus Meta offtake into a credible megawatt pipeline through 2030.
Geothermal moved from a 4 gigawatt domestic curiosity to a credible firm clean power option between 2024 and 2026. Fervo Energy commissioned the 3.5 megawatt Project Red pilot in Nevada in 2023, validated commercial scale enhanced geothermal at Cape Station Phase I in Beaver County, Utah in 2024, and is building Cape Station to 400 megawa...
GLP-1 at the Medicare Bargaining Table: Ozempic, Wegovy, and the 2027 Pricing Reset
Medicare's first negotiated prices took effect January 2026 across ten high-spend drugs. Cohort two, effective 2027, now includes Ozempic. The implications for Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, compounding telehealth, and global access stretch from Indianapolis to Indore.
The Inflation Reduction Act's drug price negotiation program moves from theory to invoice. CMS published Maximum Fair Prices for the first ten Part D drugs (Eliquis, Jardiance, Xarelto, Januvia, Farxiga, Entresto, Enbrel, Imbruvica, Stelara, NovoLog) effective January 1, 2026, with discounts ranging from 38 to 79 percent off 2023 list (CM...
Green steel, hydrogen DRI, and the 2026 transition: from Hesgang to Boden, from CBAM to 45V
The blast furnace pathway still makes 70 percent of the world's steel. Hydrogen DRI plus EAF is now moving from pilot to first commercial scale in 2025 and 2026, and the policy stack of CBAM, 45V, and Innovation Fund grants determines who clears the cost gap.
Global crude steel production reached 1.85 billion tonnes in 2024 (worldsteel), with China at 1,005 Mt, India at 149 Mt, and the United States at 79 Mt. The integrated blast furnace and basic oxygen furnace (BF and BOF) route, responsible for roughly 70 percent of output, runs at 1.85 to 2.3 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of crude ste...
Heat Pumps in 2026: Industrial Policy, Adoption Reality, and the Bottlenecks Behind a 600 Million Unit Target
European sales fell 10 percent in 2024 after the Heizungsgesetz wobble, US deployment leans on a 30 percent Section 25C credit and HEEHRA rebates, and the IEA Net Zero path requires the global installed base to triple to 600 million units by 2030 against an industry running into refrigerant transition, compressor supply, and a structural HVAC installer shortage.
The European Heat Pump Association reported a roughly 10 percent contraction in EU heat pump sales in 2024, the first decline since 2014, driven by Germany's Heizungsgesetz revision, lower gas prices, and the partial unwinding of 2022 emergency subsidies. France held above 600,000 units, Germany retreated below 200,000, the United Kingdom...
IRA phase-out in 2026: how OBBA, FEOC, and the tariff stack reprice US clean energy capex
The One Big Beautiful Act and the FEOC perimeter have not killed the energy transition, they have repriced it. Investors who modeled flat 30 percent credits through 2032 are now solving for a moving target where battery and solar economics still clear, wind and EV demand do not, and project finance is sorted by who can document a Chinese-free supply chain.
The Inflation Reduction Act, signed August 16, 2022 with an initial Joint Committee on Taxation cost estimate of 369 billion US dollars over ten years, was rescored by the Congressional Budget Office in January 2025 at 1.4 to 1.7 trillion US dollars over the 2025 to 2034 window once uncapped credit uptake was modeled. That fiscal surface,...
Long duration storage 2026: the four day battery becomes bankable
The LDES Council target of 4 day median duration, the IRA Section 48E investment tax credit at 30 to 50 percent, and Form Energy's first commercial iron air block in Lincoln Maine pulled long duration storage from a thesis into a procurement category.
Long duration energy storage (LDES) became a bankable asset class between 2024 and 2026. The LDES Council 2024 update set a 4 day median discharge target for the technologies that would matter, defined as 10 to 24 hour systems for daily firming and 100 hour systems for multi day reliability. Form Energy energized its first commercial iron...
The 2026 tariff playbook: layered overlays, real exposures
The 2026 US tariff regime is not one policy. It is six overlapping overlays stacked on top of MFN duties, with effective rates that depend on origin classification, content thresholds, and the antidumping order book. The interesting question is not the headline rate, it is which overlay binds for a given product and supplier.
By the spring of 2026 the US import-duty stack runs at least six overlays deep. Section 301 China duties remain in force at the post-September 2024 USTR review schedule, with EV duties at 100 percent and lithium-ion EV battery duties at 25 percent. IRA Section 30D and Section 48D rules have moved foreign entity of concern enforcement from...