Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Germany's automotive crisis 2026: Volkswagen, BMW, Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, and the Mittelstand supplier squeeze
The German auto cluster is absorbing the worst earnings shock since 2009. We map the OEM income collapse, the China share decay, the IG Metall pact, the Section 232 tariff hit, and the Mittelstand reset through 2026.
Volkswagen Group net income fell to 12.4 billion euros in 2024 from 17.9 billion in 2023, BMW Group net income to 7.7 billion from 12.2 billion, Mercedes-Benz Group to 10.4 billion from 14.3 billion, and Porsche AG operating margin compressed sharply across 310,718 deliveries. China retail share for the Volkswagen brand has slid from roug...
Germany Under Merz: Fiscal Reset, Defense Buildout, Industrial Triage
The 500 billion euro Sondervermoegen, a softened debt brake, and a NATO 3.5 percent path reframe Germany's macro stance. The harder question is whether industrial Germany can be repaired in time.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz took office in May 2025 leading a CDU/CSU and SPD grand coalition committed to three simultaneous resets: a fiscal reset through a 500 billion euro special infrastructure fund and a constitutional carve out exempting defense spending above 1 percent of GDP from the Schuldenbremse, a defense reset toward the new N...
TSMC's Three Continent Fab Ramp: Arizona, Kumamoto, Dresden, and the Cost of Geographic Diversification
Arizona Phase 1 production live, Phase 2 4 nm pulled forward, Kumamoto JASM Phase 1 in volume, Dresden ESMC ground broken, and capex per wafer above the Taiwan baseline. The geographic diversification is happening; the unit economics still favor Hsinchu and Tainan.
TSMC's overseas footprint is no longer a slide deck. Arizona Fab 21 Phase 1 began commercial 4 nm production in 2024 with first revenue in late 2024 and Apple, AMD, and Nvidia chipsets ramping through 2025. Phase 2, originally scheduled for 3 nm in 2028, was pulled into a 4 nm and 3 nm dual-node configuration with first wafer outs targete...