Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Cobalt 2026: the DRC chokepoint, the Indonesian flood, and a price floor that has not held
Seventy percent of mined cobalt comes out of one country, three quarters of refining sits in another, and the price has fallen by two thirds since 2022. The chokepoint did not disappear. It moved.
Cobalt entered 2026 as the most concentrated battery metal in the world and the worst priced. The Democratic Republic of the Congo produced roughly 70 percent of mined supply in 2024, China refined about three quarters of the global total, and prices fell from above 80,000 US dollars per tonne in 2022 to a 24,000 to 30,000 corridor across...
DRC, Rwanda, and the M23 Conflict in 2026: East Congo Mineral Economics, Sanctions Geometry, and Battery Supply Chain Exposure
M23 captured Goma in January 2025 and Bukavu in March 2025, with the UN Group of Experts documenting roughly 4,000 Rwanda Defence Force personnel embedded with the militia. The DRC produces about 73 percent of mined cobalt and roughly 40 percent of mined tantalum globally, per USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. The conflict, the OFAC and EU Council sanctions cycle, and the Trump March 2025 minerals for security framework now sit on top of the EV battery supply chain.
The Mouvement du 23 Mars resumed operations in November 2021 in North Kivu after a nine year dormancy following its 2013 defeat. By late January 2025 M23 had taken Goma, capital of North Kivu and a city of roughly two million, and on February 16, 2025 it captured Bukavu, capital of South Kivu. The Forces Armees de la Republique Democratiq...