Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Poland 2026: Nearshoring Beneficiary, EU Funds Absorption, Defense Capex
Warsaw is converting geopolitical proximity into capacity, but the macro stack now hinges on absorption speed, fiscal arithmetic, and a hawkish central bank.
Poland in 2026 has three reinforcing tailwinds and one structural constraint. Nearshoring flows from German auto suppliers, Korean battery majors, and US logistics platforms are pushing greenfield FDI to multi year highs, while finally released Recovery and Resilience Facility tranches plus 2021 to 2027 cohesion envelopes are accelerating...
Poland under Tusk in 2026: Governance Reset, EU Funds Reactivation, Defense as Industrial Policy
Donald Tusk's coalition has reopened the Brussels funding channel, parked the Constitutional Tribunal fight, and turned defense procurement into a domestic industrial program. The 2026 question is whether fiscal arithmetic, the NBP rate path, and the Choczewo and CPK megaprojects can be sequenced without a credibility break.
The October 2023 election produced a four party coalition led by Donald Tusk that took office on 13 December 2023. Twenty eight months in, Brussels has released the full 59.8 billion euro Krajowy Plan Odbudowy (KPO) and released the 76.5 billion euro 2021 to 2027 cohesion envelope, the Polish EU Council presidency through the first half o...