Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Crypto in 2026: ETFs, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and the Institutional Rewrite
Spot ETF plumbing, a presidential reserve order, fair-value accounting, and a permissive SEC have moved bitcoin and ether from the alt allocation column into the boundary of conventional treasury and capital markets practice.
Bitcoin and crypto institutional adoption crossed a structural threshold between 2024 and 2026. Spot bitcoin ETFs cleared roughly USD 145 billion in cumulative assets under management by the end of the first quarter of 2026, with BlackRock's IBIT alone above USD 64 billion. Ethereum spot ETFs ramped slowly after July 2024 approval and fin...
El Salvador after the Bitcoin Reset: IMF Climbdown, CECOT, and the 2026 Fiscal Outlook
The January 29, 2025 IMF EFF for USD 1.4 billion forced El Salvador to repeal mandatory Bitcoin acceptance, wind down Chivo, and shrink the Bitcoin Office, while Bukele's 84 percent reelection and homicides at 2 per 100,000 anchor a tourism, remittances, and deportation bet.
On September 7, 2021 El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender. On January 29, 2025 the IMF Executive Board approved a 40 month, USD 1.4 billion Extended Fund Facility that required the Bitcoin Law amended so private sector acceptance is voluntary, the Chivo Wallet wound down, and the Bitcoin Office reduced. Bitcoin remains legal but no longe...