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Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
UK Gilt Market in 2026: BoE QT, Fiscal Trajectory, and Pension Demand
Active gilt sales, a heavier DMO remit, and a maturing LDI ecosystem are reshaping sterling rates. We map the issuance, demand, and scenario landscape for 2026 to 2028.
The 2026 gilt market sits at a delicate crossroads. The Bank of England is still running down its Asset Purchase Facility through active sales while the Debt Management Office prints a record gross remit. Pension funds, scarred by the September 2022 liability driven investing crisis, have completed buyout transitions and largely de-risked...
UK fiscal trajectory under Reeves: gilt market discipline meets a Labour spending review
Sterling assets are repricing the second year of Reeves's chancellorship. Two budgets, one spending review, and a quarter of acute gilt stress have left the fiscal stance technically compliant with the rules and operationally fragile. The next eighteen months decide whether the framework holds.
Rachel Reeves entered the 2026 budget cycle with public sector net debt at roughly 94.5 percent of GDP, a 30 year gilt yield that touched 5.43 percent in early April, and a tax take heading toward an all time high of 38 percent of GDP by 2030-31. The Autumn Budget 2025 raised an additional 26.1 billion pounds, the June 2025 Spending Revie...