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Cocoa 2024 to 2026: West African Collapse, Price Shock, and the EUDR Reset
ICE cocoa futures printed an all time high above USD 12,500 per tonne in April 2024, then settled into a USD 7,000 to 9,000 range through Q1 2026. Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana, together roughly 60 percent of world supply, are still under disease, climate, and galamsey stress, and the chocolate platform is repricing through the entire value chain.
World cocoa output fell to roughly 4.4 million tonnes in 2023 to 2024 from a 5.0 million tonne plateau, with Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana driving more than 80 percent of the shortfall. Black pod disease, cocoa swollen shoot virus disease, El Nino dryness, and the rapid encroachment of artisanal gold mining (galamsey) onto Ghanaian cocoa land c...
Ghana 2026: Cocoa Collapse, IMF Stabilization, and the Mahama Reset
Ghana exits 2025 with a halved cocoa crop, a restructured Eurobond stack, and a new Mahama administration. The 2026 question is whether disinflation, gold receipts, and ECF discipline can outrun the structural decay at COCOBOD.
Ghana entered the IMF Extended Credit Facility in May 2023 with USD 3 billion over 36 months, restructured domestic debt under the DDEP, and swapped USD 13 billion of Eurobonds in October 2024. Cocoa output collapsed from a 2020-21 peak of 1.05 million tonnes to roughly 430,000 tonnes in 2023-24 per ICCO, driven by swollen shoot virus, ga...