Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Trinidad and Venezuela 2026: the Dragon license, Atlantic LNG idle trains, and Caribbean gas arbitrage
Atlantic LNG runs at 9.0 mtpa against 14.8 mtpa nameplate, Train 1 has been idle since end 2020, and the four cross border fields with Venezuela are the only unsanctioned upside. The Dragon, Cocuina, and Manakin Cocuina licenses, OFAC General License 41 and 41A, and the disputed July 2024 Maduro reelection together set the gas balance for the eastern Caribbean through 2028.
Trinidad and Tobago's gas economy is contracting in slow motion. Marketed gas production peaked near 4.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2010 and ran at 2.55 Bcf/d in 2024, a 36 percent drawdown that has stranded one of the four Atlantic LNG trains since end 2020 and capped national LNG output at 9.0 million tonnes per annum against a 14.8 ...
Venezuela Frozen: Maduro's Third Term, Sanctioned Crude, and the Essequibo Wager
Maduro took a third term on January 10, 2025, after a July 28, 2024 election the CNE called for him with 51 percent and the opposition documented as a Gonzalez Urrutia win. The 2026 question is whether sanctions, oil, migration, and Essequibo break the equilibrium.
On July 28, 2024, Venezuela's CNE proclaimed Nicolas Maduro winner of the presidential election with 51.2 percent against Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia at 44.2 percent, without publishing precinct tallies. The opposition, organized around Maria Corina Machado after her 2023 inhabilitacion, published more than 24,500 actas (over 80 percent of m...