Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
ECB Quantitative Tightening 2026: BTP Bund Spreads, Fiscal Compliance, and the Eurozone Absorption Test
The ECB has cut the deposit facility rate from a 4.00 percent peak in September 2023 to 2.50 percent by March 2025, while running off APP and PEPP balance sheets in parallel. With Italy and France inside the new EU fiscal framework and EUR 700 billion of net long end issuance to be absorbed in 2026, fragmentation risk is priced in BTP Bund basis rather than in TPI activation.
On June 6 2024 the ECB delivered the first 25 basis point rate cut after the September 2023 4.00 percent deposit facility peak, and by March 2025 the deposit facility stood at 2.50 percent under Lagarde's data dependent framing. The Asset Purchase Programme has been in full passive runoff since July 2023, rolling off near EUR 30 billion p...
UK Gilt Market in 2026: BoE QT, Fiscal Trajectory, and Pension Demand
Active gilt sales, a heavier DMO remit, and a maturing LDI ecosystem are reshaping sterling rates. We map the issuance, demand, and scenario landscape for 2026 to 2028.
The 2026 gilt market sits at a delicate crossroads. The Bank of England is still running down its Asset Purchase Facility through active sales while the Debt Management Office prints a record gross remit. Pension funds, scarred by the September 2022 liability driven investing crisis, have completed buyout transitions and largely de-risked...