Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Container shipping 2026: the newbuild glut, the Red Sea reroute, and the tariff stack
A 31.6 million TEU fleet is taking record deliveries into a market still pulled long by the Cape of Good Hope detour and reshaped by Trump 2.0 tariffs and the Section 301 China shipbuilding remedy. We map fleet, rates, alliance reset, and the 2026 to 2028 corridor.
Clarksons placed the global container fleet at about 31.6 million TEU at end 2024 with an orderbook running at roughly 24 percent of fleet, the highest cover since 2008. Calendar 2024 deliveries hit a record 2.9 million TEU and 2025 is expected near 2.0 million TEU. Yet effective supply has been absorbed by the Red Sea diversion: Suez tra...
Greek Tourism Overflow and Shipping Tax Windfall: Pricing the 2026 Crossroads
Greece's 2026 macro crossroads across tourism capacity, shipping tax, debt dynamics, and euro-area risk pricing.
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Maritime decarbonization 2026: ammonia and methanol after the IMO net zero framework
MEPC 83 set a global fuel intensity charge starting USD 100 per tonne CO2 equivalent in 2027, with EU FuelEU layered on top. The orderbook reads 17 percent LNG, 6 percent methanol, 3 percent ammonia. Maersk and CMA CGM have made opposite bets.
The IMO adopted the GHG net zero framework at MEPC 83 in April 2025, mandatory from January 1, 2027. It sets a USD 100 per tonne CO2 equivalent fuel intensity charge above the base trajectory and a USD 380 per tonne Direct Compliance Unit penalty on the stringent gap, the first universal carbon price on shipping. EU FuelEU Maritime, in fo...
Panama Canal water economics 2026: Gatun Lake, transit auctions, and the Rio Indio reservoir bet
The 2023 to 2024 drought cut Panama Canal daily transits from 36 to 22, drove a single slot auction to USD 4.0 million, and forced US grain, LPG, and LNG cargoes onto Cape and Suez routings. The Rio Indio reservoir at USD 1.2 to 1.6 billion is the structural answer, but it does not commission until 2030.
The Autoridad del Canal de Panama (ACP) reported FY2023 transit revenue of USD 4.97 billion on 14,080 oceangoing transits, then cut its booking slot count from 36 in normal conditions to 22 by November 2023 as Gatun Lake fell to 79.7 feet against the 87 foot ideal. One transit slot auctioned for USD 3.975 million in November 2023, the hig...
Yemen, the Houthi blockade, and the Red Sea reroute economics of 2026
Suez revenue fell 63 percent in 2024, container traffic remains 55 percent below the late 2023 peak, and Lloyd's war risk premia stand at ten times pre attack levels. The Saudi roadmap, the Trump strikes, and Gulf restoration paths converge on one chokepoint.
Houthi anti shipping operations, sustained from November 2023 through the first quarter of 2026, have repriced the Bab el Mandeb and Suez transit corridor. Suez Canal Authority revenue fell to USD 880 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, against USD 2.4 billion in the same quarter of 2023, a 63 percent collapse. UKMTO and EU Aspides log...