Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Australia 2026: Household Debt, the Mortgage Roll, and Big-Four Balance Sheets
The fixed-rate cliff has cleared, but Australian household leverage, RBA easing, and concentrated bank exposures still define the macro-financial outlook through 2028.
Australia enters 2026 with the highest household debt-to-income ratio in the OECD, a residential mortgage book that has now fully repriced from the 2020 to 2021 ultra-low fixed cohort, and a Big Four banking system whose collective balance sheet equals roughly two and a half times nominal GDP. With the RBA having pivoted from a 4.35 perce...
Australia 2026: Housing Crunch, RBA Easing, and the Albanese Second Term
A re-elected Labor government, a slow RBA pivot, and a structurally undersupplied housing market frame the Australian macro-financial outlook through 2028.
Australia enters 2026 with the worst housing affordability on record, an RBA cash rate that has eased from a 4.35 percent peak to 3.85 percent in stages, and a Labor government returned with an enlarged majority on May 3, 2025. Albanese's second-term agenda combines supply-side commitments (1.2 million new homes by 2029), demand-side refo...
Australia 2026: Iron Ore Margins, the RBA Pivot, and the Housing Question
Iron ore prices have rolled off their long term average, lithium is in plant level retreat, the Reserve Bank is cutting into a still tight labor market, and a Sydney median above 1.6 million dollars is rewriting the political contract between retirees and renters.
Australia enters 2026 with two divergent stories. Iron ore on the Singapore Exchange platform is trading at 90 to 110 USD per tonne 62 percent Fe FOB China against a 120 USD long term average, while lithium spodumene operators have placed Greenbushes, Wodgina, Mt Holland, and the IGO Cosmos asset on care, curtailment, or production guidan...