Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Argentina IMF Year Two: Reserve Build, Cepo Sequencing, and the 2026 Stabilization Bet
The April 11, 2025 USD 20 billion Extended Fund Facility reset Argentina's external anchor. Monthly inflation is near 2 percent, the primary surplus holds, and Vaca Muerta plus BOPREAL have rebuilt reserves, while LIBRA and the October 2025 midterms test durability.
On April 11, 2025 the IMF Board approved a 48 month, USD 20 billion Extended Fund Facility for Argentina, replacing the failed 2022 Stand By and front-loading USD 12 billion. On April 14, 2025 the Caputo Bausili team partially liberalized the cepo, floating the peso inside an ARS 1,000 to 1,400 per dollar band and retaining controls only ...
Argentina Year Two: Milei's Fiscal Anchor and the Disinflation Bet
Fifteen months in, the Milei administration has delivered a primary surplus, crushed monthly inflation from 25.5 percent to roughly 2.5 percent, and pulled in a fresh IMF Extended Fund Facility. The remaining bet is sequencing: lift the cepo without losing the peso, and turn Vaca Muerta plus the lithium triangle into a reserve story that survives the 2027 cycle.
Javier Milei took office on December 10, 2023, with a primary fiscal deficit of roughly 3 percent of GDP, monthly headline inflation of 25.5 percent in December 2023, and net BCRA reserves near minus 11 billion dollars. Fifteen months later the picture has inverted. The 2024 primary surplus closed at 1.8 percent of GDP, the first full-yea...
Nigeria Year Three Under Tinubu: Reform Cohort, Political Economy, and the 2027 Runway
Three years after the May 2023 inauguration, the Tinubu reform cohort has rebuilt the macro arithmetic that Emefiele governance hollowed out. The political economy of holding the reforms through 2027 is the harder problem.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office on 29 May 2023 and within fourteen days had ended the petroleum motor spirit subsidy and instructed the Central Bank to collapse the multi-window foreign exchange regime. The naira moved from 460 per dollar to a NAFEM rate that printed near 1,520 in March 2026, and headline inflation peaked at 34.80 percent i...