Energy Transition
2026-04-26
10 minute read
17 sources
Heat Pumps in 2026: Industrial Policy, Adoption Reality, and the Bottlenecks Behind a 600 Million Unit Target
European sales fell 10 percent in 2024 after the Heizungsgesetz wobble, US deployment leans on a 30 percent Section 25C credit and HEEHRA rebates, and the IEA Net Zero path requires the global installed base to triple to 600 million units by 2030 against an industry running into refrigerant transition, compressor supply, and a structural HVAC installer shortage.
The European Heat Pump Association reported a roughly 10 percent contraction in EU heat pump sales in 2024, the first decline since 2014, driven by Germany's Heizungsgesetz revision, lower gas prices, and the partial unwinding of 2022 emergency subsidies. France held above 600,000 units, Germany retreated below 200,000, the United Kingdom...