Energy and transition economics
2026-04-26
11 minute read
17 sources
IRA phase-out in 2026: how OBBA, FEOC, and the tariff stack reprice US clean energy capex
The One Big Beautiful Act and the FEOC perimeter have not killed the energy transition, they have repriced it. Investors who modeled flat 30 percent credits through 2032 are now solving for a moving target where battery and solar economics still clear, wind and EV demand do not, and project finance is sorted by who can document a Chinese-free supply chain.
The Inflation Reduction Act, signed August 16, 2022 with an initial Joint Committee on Taxation cost estimate of 369 billion US dollars over ten years, was rescored by the Congressional Budget Office in January 2025 at 1.4 to 1.7 trillion US dollars over the 2025 to 2034 window once uncapped credit uptake was modeled. That fiscal surface,...