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Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Argentina Capital Controls Lifting and the FX Regime Through 2026
On April 11, 2025 the IMF Executive Board approved a USD 20 billion Extended Fund Facility for Argentina, and within seventy two hours the Caputo Bausili team lifted the cepo for individuals and floated the peso inside an ARS 1,000 to 1,400 crawling band. Reserves climbed from USD 26 billion in February 2025 to USD 39 billion by April 2025, the parallel dollar gap collapsed from 60 percent to under 10 percent, and the Argentina 2030 USD bond compressed from 25 percent yields to 12 percent. The stabilization is the most consequential FX regime shift in emerging markets since Sri Lanka 2023.
The April 2025 IMF EFF and the simultaneous partial dismantling of the cepo reset Argentina's external anchor for the first time since the 2019 reimposition. The crawling band ARS 1,000 to 1,400 vs USD operates with explicit BCRA intervention rules at the floor and ceiling, the parallel dollar gap has compressed from 60 percent to under 1...
Stablecoin macro impact 2026: USD demand, EM dollarization, T-bill arithmetic
Dollar tokens are now a structural buyer of short Treasuries, a parallel rail for cross border payments, and a soft dollarization channel for emerging markets. We map the cap trajectory, the reserve plumbing, and three forward scenarios.
Dollar denominated stablecoin supply has tripled from roughly 130 billion at the start of 2023 to over 280 billion in early 2026, with reserves now concentrated in Treasury bills, repo, and bank deposits. The category has crossed from a crypto trading utility into a parallel dollar liquidity layer that displaces correspondent banking on s...
Stablecoins meet the statute: GENIUS, MiCA, and the Treasury bid in 2026
USD 230 billion of dollar pegged stablecoins now sit between bank money, money market funds, and the US Treasury bill curve. The GENIUS Act, signed July 18, 2025, gives the architecture a federal license and an OCC primary regulator. MiCA closed the European retail market for USDT through the second half of 2024. The question for 2026 is no longer whether stablecoins are legitimate. It is who underwrites the reserves, where the Treasury demand sits, and which payment corridors the rails actually win.
Dollar pegged stablecoins reached USD 230 billion in circulation by Q1 2026, with Tether USDT at roughly USD 142 billion and Circle USDC at roughly USD 60 billion. Tether's Q4 2024 BDO attestation reported USD 113 billion of direct and indirect US Treasury exposure, which would rank Tether around the 18th largest sovereign holder of US Tr...
Bills, Coupons, and the Buyer Rotation: How Treasury Finances a USD 2 Trillion Deficit in 2026
The Treasury runs a roughly USD 28 trillion debt stock and a USD 2 trillion fiscal deficit through 2026 with rising bills share, the foreign buyer base flattening, and the Fed runoff at residual pace. The marginal-buyer question now sits with stablecoins, money funds, and US households.
United States Treasury debt held by the public crossed USD 28 trillion in early 2025 and tracks toward USD 30 trillion by year end 2026 on Congressional Budget Office baselines. The fiscal year 2025 deficit settled near USD 1.85 trillion; FY2026 baseline runs USD 2.0 to 2.1 trillion before any IEEPA tariff revenue or expiring TCJA provisi...