Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Gold, sanctions, and the slow erosion of the dollar reserve standard
The 2022 freezing of Russian central bank assets triggered a structural reset in how emerging market reserve managers think about safety. Three years later, official sector gold buying has stayed above 1,000 tonnes annually, the dollar share of allocated reserves has drifted to 58 percent, and the gold price has cleared $2,700 per ounce on a flow that primary dealers can no longer ignore.
Between 2022 and 2024 the official sector bought 3,164 tonnes of gold, the heaviest three year run on record. The trigger was the February 2022 freeze of roughly $300 billion of Russian central bank reserves, which reset the calculus for every reserve manager outside the G7 perimeter. The People's Bank of China, the Reserve Bank of India,...
Stablecoin demand for US Treasuries in 2026: bills, repo, and the GENIUS Act perimeter
GENIUS Act implementation, Tether and Circle reserve attestations, and Treasury official statements have made dollar stablecoins a structural buyer of short bills. We size the bid, decompose maturity holdings, and stress test the redemption channel.
Aggregate dollar stablecoin supply has crossed roughly 220 billion in early 2026, with reserves now overwhelmingly concentrated in Treasury bills inside three months and overnight repo collateralized by Treasuries. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, signed into law in July 2025, locked in a 1:1 cash...