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Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Bank of Japan Normalization 2026: JGB Curve Repricing and the Yen Carry Endgame
After ending NIRP, YCC, and ETF purchases in March 2024 and lifting the policy rate to 0.50 percent in January 2025, the Ueda Bank is tapering JGB purchases from JPY 6 trillion to roughly JPY 3 trillion per month by Q1 2026. The August 5, 2024 carry unwind, the JPY 9.8 trillion MoF intervention episode, and the persistent above target services inflation reset the global rates and FX architecture.
On March 19, 2024 the Bank of Japan exited eight years of negative interest rate policy, ended yield curve control, and stopped ETF and J-REIT purchases, the first rate hike since February 2007. The July 31, 2024 move to 0.25 percent and the January 24, 2025 move to 0.50 percent confirmed the regime shift. The June and July 2024 plan to r...
Japan in 2026: BoJ Normalization, JGB Curve Dynamics, Yen Carry Trade Math
After three decades of unconventional policy, the Bank of Japan is steering rates higher into a system that was architected for zero. The carry trade, the JGB curve, and global duration are all repricing in real time.
Japan in 2026 sits at the most consequential policy inflection of the post bubble era. With the policy rate at 0.75 percent and the BoJ telegraphing a path toward 1.25 percent by mid 2027, the long end of the JGB curve has steepened sharply, the 30 year yield is testing 2.85 percent, and life insurers, GPIF, and global carry traders are a...