Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Veldhoven Under the Microscope: ASML, Lithography Export Controls, and the 2026 Inflection
How Dutch licensing rules, EUV scarcity, and DUV exposure to China reshape the equipment supply chain through 2028.
ASML enters 2026 as the single most strategically constrained company in the global semiconductor supply chain. Its monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography, combined with Dutch and allied export controls layered since 2023, has converted a commercial backlog into a geopolitical instrument. This brief decomposes the Veldhoven order boo...
The Schoof Cabinet at Twenty-One Months: Wilders by Proxy and a Coalition on Probation
The Netherlands is run by an extraparliamentary technocrat fronting a four party coalition that Geert Wilders steers from the Tweede Kamer. The 2026 question is whether NSC walks before Box 3, the asylum decree, and the Tata Steel green steel file collide.
The November 22, 2023 Tweede Kamer election delivered the largest single seat shift in Dutch postwar history: PVV from 17 to 37 seats, GroenLinks PvdA at 25 under Frans Timmermans, VVD at 24 under Dilan Yesilgoz, and Pieter Omtzigt's Nieuw Sociaal Contract at 20 from a standing start. The 222 day formation, the longest in Dutch history, e...