Macro-financial risk
2026-04-26
11 min read
12 sources
Cuba 2026: Currency Collapse, Blackouts, and the Demographic Drain
Five years after Tarea Ordenamiento, Cuba runs a parallel rate near 380 CUP per dollar against an official 24, 750,000 Cubans have walked into the United States, and the grid fails twice a quarter. The 2026 outlook is contraction with Venezuelan optics.
Cuba's Tarea Ordenamiento, launched January 1, 2021, was framed as a textbook unification: retire the convertible peso (CUC), keep the Cuban peso (CUP), set a single rate at 24 CUP per dollar, and let productivity catch up. Five years on, the official 24 rate persists only for select state transactions, the household informal market clear...