Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
H5N1 in US Dairy 2024 to 2026: A Slow-Motion Pandemic Stress Test
Two years after the first detection of H5N1 genotype B3.13 in a Texas dairy herd, the outbreak has spread to 17 states, infected at least 70 workers, killed one person, and left the United States one reassortment event away from a pandemic.
On 25 March 2024 the USDA confirmed the first detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in dairy cattle, in a Texas herd presenting with reduced milk production and lethargy. Two years later, the outbreak is the largest mammalian H5N1 event ever recorded. The B3.13 genotype has crossed into 17 states and roughly 1,070 herds, inf...
Trump pharma tariffs and the US drug supply chain through 2026: Section 232, Ireland exposure, and the API reshoring arithmetic
The April 2025 Section 232 pharmaceuticals investigation, the Ireland headline import number, and the India and China API base together define the 2026 corridor. We map the import stack, the announced reshoring capex, the IRA Year 2 negotiation list, and the 2026 to 2028 buyer playbook.
The Trump administration commenced a Section 232 pharmaceuticals investigation on April 1, 2025 under the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) at the Department of Commerce, with public threats of duties between 25 and 200 percent on imported finished drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). United States imports under Harmoni...