Geopolitics & Resilience
2026-04-26
11 minute read
14 sources
Ethiopia 2026: Tigray reintegration, GERD power, and the birr float
The Pretoria peace, GERD's six turbine commissioning, and the July 2024 birr float reset Ethiopia's macro and political map. Eurobond restructuring, IMF EFF execution, and the Somaliland MoU determine whether the stabilization holds through 2027.
Ethiopia entered 2026 with three simultaneous reset clocks. The November 2, 2022 Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement formally ended the Tigray war, but TPLF disarmament, federal force redeployment, and the contested western Tigray districts remain partially unsettled. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reached full reservoir fill...