Defense and geopolitics
2026-04-26
11 minute read
12 sources
Myanmar 2026: A Fractured State, a Collapsing Kyat, and the Economics of Lost Territory
Five years after the coup, the Tatmadaw has ceded most border regions to the Three Brotherhood Alliance and PDFs, the kyat has lost two thirds of its parallel-market value, and the economy runs on garments, jade, and gold across borders the junta no longer holds.
The 1 February 2021 State Administration Council coup triggered the deepest contraction in Myanmar's post-independence history, with real GDP falling roughly 18 percent in 2021 (World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2022). The Operation 1027 offensive launched on 27 October 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance broke the territorial ...