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Industrial policy and supply chains 2026-04-26 10 minute read

West Africa iron ore 2026: Simandou first ore, ArcelorMittal Liberia, and the rail port economics that decide the corridor

Simandou begins shipping in late 2025 and ramps to 60 mtpa by 2028. ArcelorMittal Liberia is rebuilding the Yekepa to Buchanan corridor toward 30 mtpa. The two projects, plus Marampa in Sierra Leone, will reset the 65 percent Fe seaborne pool that China's electric arc furnace transition needs.

Simandou in southeast Guinea holds 2.4 billion tonnes of high grade iron ore at roughly 65 percent Fe, the largest untapped deposit of its quality in the world. The Simfer joint venture (Rio Tinto 53 percent, Winning Consortium Simandou 47 percent across blocks 1 and 2, with Chinalco and Baowu participating) committed USD 11.6 billion in December 2023 and expects first ore on ship in late 2025, ramping to 60 million tonnes per year by 2028. ArcelorMittal Liberia closed a USD 1.4 billion expansion package in February 2024 to rebuild the Yekepa to Buchanan rail and lift Liberian exports from 5 to 30 mtpa by 2027. Marampa, operated by Gerald Group's SL Mining, ships 2.5 mtpa of pellet feed concentrate from Sierra Leone. The 62 percent Fe Platts CFR China benchmark averaged USD 109.7 per dry metric tonne in 2024, against USD 119.0 in 2023, while the 65 percent Fe premium widened to USD 18 to 22 per tonne as Chinese mills accelerated the shift to direct reduced iron grade feed. The corridor will add 90 to 100 million tonnes of high grade supply by 2028, displace marginal Brazilian and Canadian tonnes from the Asian basin, and rewrite the seaborne fines premium curve.

The corridor in one table: four projects, three countries, USD 16 billion of capex #

Five projects across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone share one decisive feature for the seaborne market: they target the high grade fines and pellet feed segment that the 62 percent Fe Platts benchmark does not capture. Simandou, the centerpiece, sits across blocks 1 and 2 (Winning Consortium Simandou) and blocks 3 and 4 (Simfer JV led by Rio Tinto), with the December 2023 final investment decision committing USD 11.6 billion in upstream, rail, and port spend (Rio Tinto press release, December 5 2023). The 600 kilometer single track standard gauge railway from the Pic de Fon plateau to a new transshipment port at Morebaya is shared infrastructure under a multi user access regime, with the State of Guinea taking a 15 percent free carry across the integrated venture (Conakry Convention, March 2022).

ArcelorMittal Liberia follows a different logic. The Yekepa orebody in Nimba county is older and partially depleted by the original Lamco operations that ran from 1963 to 1989, but the 243 kilometer rail to Buchanan port is sunk infrastructure. The third amendment to the Mineral Development Agreement, signed by the Boakai administration on February 21 2024 after his January 22 2024 inauguration, released USD 1.4 billion of expansion capex for a wet concentrator at Yekepa and rail upgrades to lift run rate from 5 mtpa direct shipping ore to 15 mtpa concentrate by end 2026 and 30 mtpa by 2027 (ArcelorMittal Q4 2024 results, February 6 2025).

ProjectCountryOperator and ownershipReserves and gradeCapex (USD bn)Capacity 2028 (mtpa)
Simandou blocks 3 and 4Guinea (Beyla, Kerouane)Simfer JV: Rio Tinto 53, Chinalco led consortium 471.5 Bn t at 65.3 percent Fe6.230
Simandou blocks 1 and 2Guinea (Forecariah, Kerouane)WCS: Winning Shipping, Baowu, Hebei, UMS0.9 Bn t at 65.0 percent Fe5.430
Yekepa to BuchananLiberia (Nimba, Grand Bassa)ArcelorMittal Liberia, 70 percent ArcelorMittal1.0 Bn t at 35 to 64 percent Fe1.430
Marampa MinesSierra Leone (Port Loko)Gerald Group SL Mining, 90 percent Gerald0.51 Bn t at 30 to 33 percent Fe (concentrate to 65)0.44
Tonkolili (legacy, idled)Sierra LeoneKingho Resources, China13.7 Bn t magnetite at 30 percent Fe2.510
West Africa iron ore corridor, end 2028 outlook (operators, reserves, capex, design capacity)

Simandou economics: USD 11.6 billion, 26 year mine life, breakeven near USD 50 per tonne CFR #

The Simfer scope on blocks 3 and 4 is USD 6.2 billion, with the WCS scope on blocks 1 and 2 at USD 5.4 billion (Rio Tinto Investor Seminar, October 2024). Total integrated project capital, including the 600 kilometer rail, Morebaya port, mine plant, and dedicated power, runs to USD 20 billion at gross level when government and partner contributions are included, of which Rio Tinto's net attributable share is approximately USD 7.7 billion through 2028. First ore on ship is targeted for late 2025, with a 30 month ramp to design capacity of 60 mtpa split evenly between Simfer and WCS. Mine life on declared reserves of 2.4 billion tonnes at 65 percent Fe runs to 2052 at design rate.

Cash cost guidance places C1 at USD 18 to 22 per dry metric tonne FOB Morebaya at steady state, with all in sustaining costs near USD 35 to 40 per tonne CFR China including freight, royalties, and the state free carry distribution. That positions Simandou at the lowest quartile of the global cost curve, alongside Vale's Carajas (S11D) at USD 14 to 18 per tonne C1 and below the Pilbara average of USD 22 to 24 per tonne FOB. The strategic point is grade. Simandou will produce sinter feed at 65.3 percent Fe with low alumina and phosphorus, suitable as direct charge to the hydrogen DRI plants that Baowu, ArcelorMittal, and HBIS are commissioning between 2026 and 2030. The 65 percent Fe Platts premium over the 62 percent benchmark widened from USD 11.20 per tonne in 2022 to USD 19.70 per tonne in 2024 (S and P Global Platts annual review).

ArcelorMittal Liberia and the Yekepa to Buchanan corridor #

ArcelorMittal acquired the Liberian asset in 2005 and signed the original 25 year MDA that year. After amendments in 2007 and 2017, the third amendment of February 2024 was negotiated under the Weah to Boakai transition. It lifts the rail to a multi user access framework, requires USD 65 million in deferred social benefits to Nimba and Grand Bassa counties, and raises the corporate income tax rate to 30 percent from the legacy 25 percent. Cumulative mining royalties paid to the Government of Liberia between 2018 and 2024 reached USD 197 million across all operators, with ArcelorMittal contributing USD 138 million (LEITI 14th reconciliation report, March 2025).

The expansion economics are tighter than Simandou. Yekepa runs from a depleted hematite to magnetite pit complex requiring beneficiation. The new wet concentrator at Tokadeh will lift run of mine grade from 35 percent Fe to 64 percent Fe pellet feed, with mass yield near 38 percent and cash cost guidance of USD 45 to 55 per tonne FOB Buchanan at steady state, against a project IRR of 14 to 16 percent at a USD 95 per tonne long term price assumption (ArcelorMittal Capital Markets Day, September 2024). The rebuilt rail moves Liberian iron ore exports back to levels last seen in 1974, and lifts mining's share of Liberian GDP from 14 percent in 2024 (IMF Article IV, December 2024) toward 22 to 25 percent by 2028.

Production trajectory and the China grade premium #

China imported 1.237 billion tonnes of iron ore in 2024 against domestic crude steel output of 1.005 billion tonnes (China General Administration of Customs, January 2025). The composition is shifting. The share of imports above 62 percent Fe rose from 38 percent in 2018 to 47 percent in 2024, driven by sintering productivity rules under the 2021 Ultra Low Emission Standard and by HBIS, Baowu, and Shougang hydrogen DRI pilots. The 65 percent Fe premium ran at USD 18 to 22 per tonne through 2024 against a 2018 to 2020 average of USD 8 to 10 per tonne, with Vale's Carajas IOCJ and Anglo American's Minas Rio pellet feed capturing most of the spread.

Simandou enters at scale. At 60 mtpa of 65.3 percent Fe sinter feed, it equals 35 to 40 percent of current Vale Carajas IOCJ exports and lands at 31 to 33 days steaming to Asia from Morebaya versus 38 to 42 days from Tubarao or Ponta da Madeira. Vale's response, set out in its November 2024 Vale Day, is the New Carajas project, a USD 12.4 billion expansion that aims to lift S11D and Carajas Serra Norte to 230 mtpa by 2030 with mass shifted toward briquette feed. The 62 percent Fe Platts CFR China benchmark averaged USD 109.7 per tonne in 2024 against USD 119.0 in 2023, and SGX forwards placed the 2026 calendar at USD 92 to 96 and the 2028 calendar at USD 78 to 82 per tonne, prices that already discount the West African supply wave.

YearSimandou (Mt)ArcelorMittal Liberia (Mt)Marampa (Mt)West Africa total (Mt)Share of seaborne (%)
2023 actual0.05.02.57.50.5
2024 actual0.05.02.57.50.5
2025 estimate1.08.03.012.00.8
2026 forecast15.015.03.533.52.2
2027 forecast40.025.04.069.04.4
2028 forecast60.030.04.094.05.9
2030 outlook60.030.04.594.55.8
West Africa iron ore production trajectory 2023 to 2030 (million tonnes, share of 1.6 Bn t global seaborne pool)

Guinean political risk: Doumbouya, the August 2022 mining code, and the 15 percent state free carry #

Colonel Mamady Doumbouya led the September 5 2021 coup that removed President Alpha Conde, and the National Committee for Reconciliation and Development was formalized as the National Transition Council. The May 2022 charter set a 24 month timeline that has slipped twice. ECOWAS suspended Guinea's membership in February 2024, and the AU Peace and Security Council issued a renewed warning in March 2025. The Doumbouya regime froze permits in March 2022, conducted a revue generale of all mining titles, and signed the August 2022 Conakry Convention with Simfer and WCS that gave the Guinean state a 15 percent non dilutable free carry across the integrated venture, plus a 0.075 percent gross revenue royalty for the Compagnie du TransGuineen (CTG) shared infrastructure entity.

The Convention imposed 25 percent Guinean equity in the rail and port operating company by 2028, 60 percent local employment, and a USD 800 million CTG community development fund over 25 years. Guinea's bauxite sector, separately, contributed 30 percent of fiscal receipts in 2024 (IMF Article IV, October 2024). Guinea GDP grew 5.7 percent in 2024, with mining the largest contributor. Two political risks dominate for Simfer and WCS: a civilian transition that could produce a Conde restoration challenge to existing contracts, and the Chinese ownership concentration in WCS (Baowu, Hebei Iron and Steel, and Aluminum Corporation of China hold roughly 75 percent between them) which could trigger US Treasury foreign entity of concern review if Simandou ore reaches American supply chains via European intermediaries.

2026 outlook: corridor effects on price, freight, and the global pellet feed pool #

Three shifts define the 2026 to 2028 window. First, Simandou's first ore on ship in late 2025, with the ramp pulling 35 to 45 mtpa of high grade fines into seaborne by end 2027. The price effect is tilt, not collapse: SGX forwards already price the addition, and the 65 percent premium is more likely to compress from USD 19 to USD 14 by 2028 than the headline benchmark to fall below USD 75. Second, ArcelorMittal Liberia's 30 mtpa of 64 percent Fe concentrate lifts the corridor share of seaborne supply from 0.5 percent in 2024 to 5.9 percent by 2028 on the USGS 2025 baseline of 1.6 billion tonnes. Marampa adds 4 mtpa of pellet feed, with Gerald Group exploring a tied port at Pepel.

Third, the China steel decarbonization vector. The MIIT 2024 to 2030 ferrous metals carbon roadmap targets 15 percent electric arc furnace share by 2030 against 11 percent in 2024, with hydrogen DRI capacity targeted at 30 mtpa from a 2024 base of 4 mtpa across Baowu Zhanjiang, HBIS Hyperion 1, and Shougang Jingtang. DRI grade demand for 67 percent Fe pellet feed and 68 percent Fe direct reduction pellets will outrun supply, and Simandou plus Carajas plus Minas Rio plus Kumba Sishen will be insufficient to cover the ramp by 2030 on Wood Mackenzie modeling. The pellet premium, USD 35 to 45 per tonne over fines in 2024, is forecast to widen to USD 55 to 65 by 2028.

For Liberia, ArcelorMittal at 30 mtpa generates USD 90 to 110 million per year in royalties at 3 percent of gross sales on a USD 95 per tonne assumption, plus 30 percent corporate tax on profits of USD 600 to 800 million at steady state. Total corridor fiscal receipts reach USD 280 to 350 million per year, against 2024 government revenue of USD 760 million. For Guinea, Simandou royalties plus the free carry distribution contribute USD 1.4 to 1.8 billion per year by 2028. For ArcelorMittal corporate, the Liberia expansion lifts captive iron ore self sufficiency from 56 percent in 2024 to 71 percent by 2028, improving the cost position of its European and North American flat steel mills.

Strategos estimates a 70 percent probability that Simandou reaches 60 mtpa by 2028, a 60 percent probability that ArcelorMittal Liberia reaches 25 mtpa rather than 30, and a 45 percent probability that the 65 percent premium compresses below USD 12 by 2028. The recommendation for steel buyers: lock pellet feed offtake from Simandou and Marampa under five year fixed tonnage, hedge sinter fines on SGX 2027 and 2028 calendars before the ramp clears. The corridor will be operational. Grade premium economics are not yet priced in.

Sources #

Cite this brief

@misc{hossen2026westafricaironore2026,
  author = {Hossen, Md Deluair},
  title  = {West Africa iron ore 2026: Simandou first ore, ArcelorMittal Liberia, and the rail port economics that decide the corridor},
  year   = {2026},
  url    = {https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/west-africa-iron-ore-2026},
  note   = {Deluair Consultancy briefs}
}
liberiaguineairon-orearcelormittalsimandourio-tintoafricamining
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