Mauritius 2026: blue economy, financial center reset, and the Chagos sovereignty deal

The 1.96 million square kilometer ocean estate #

Mauritius is a 2,040 square kilometer land mass governing a maritime estate 960 times its size. The Continental Shelf submission lodged with the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, jointly with Seychelles in 2008 for the Mascarene Plateau and unilaterally for other zones, secured an Exclusive Economic Zone of 1.96 million square kilometers (UN CLCS records). The coastline measures 1,865 kilometers across the main island, Rodrigues, Agalega, and the Saint Brandon archipelago. The Chagos Archipelago, recognized as Mauritian sovereign territory by the International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion of February 25, 2019 and by UN General Assembly Resolution 73/295, adds approximately 640,000 square kilometers of marine area when fully transferred. Combined, the post Chagos EEZ exceeds 2.6 million square kilometers, the largest controlled by any sub Saharan African state.

Fisheries dominate the recorded ocean economy. The Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission and the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission record annual tuna catches of approximately 60,000 tonnes within the Mauritius and Seychelles WCPFC and IOTC zones, with skipjack and yellowfin the dominant species. The Princes Tuna Mauritius cannery at Riche Terre, owned by the German Hochfeld group, is the single largest exporter and processes for the Princes brand serving UK and European supermarkets. FAO Fishery and Aquaculture statistics record Mauritian fish and fish product exports at USD 312 million in 2023, of which canned tuna represented 78 percent. The blue economy contribution to GDP is estimated by the Ministry of Blue Economy at 10.5 percent including tourism, ports, and seafood, broadly aligned with the AfDB Indian Ocean blue economy assessment.

Chagos: the October 2024 treaty and the Trump complication #

On October 3, 2024 the United Kingdom and Mauritius announced a political agreement transferring sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius, ending a dispute that began with the excision of Chagos from Mauritius in 1965 and the forced removal of the Chagossians between 1968 and 1973. The agreed structure has three components. First, the UK recognizes Mauritian sovereignty over the entire archipelago. Second, Mauritius leases Diego Garcia back to the UK for an initial 99 year term to host the joint UK and US military facility. Third, the UK will pay Mauritius an annual sum, reported in the UK government statement and FCDO documentation at GBP 101 million per year indexed, with a separate Chagossian trust fund. The US Department of Defense Diego Garcia base hosts strategic bombers, prepositioned naval logistics, and an Air Force satellite ground station, with annual operating outlays in the order of USD 1 billion based on Defense Manpower Data Center and DoD comptroller filings.

The transition is not yet closed. In February 2025, President Trump publicly questioned the financial terms agreed by the previous Sunak and subsequent Starmer governments, signaling that Washington might withhold support unless terms were renegotiated. The Ramgoolam government, which inherited the framework from Jugnauth's negotiating team, has reaffirmed Mauritian commitment while the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office continues drafting the implementing treaty for parliamentary ratification in London and Port Louis. The base has not paused operations. For Mauritius, Chagos converts a moral and legal victory into an annual hard currency stream and a permanent strategic relationship with the United States, even before considering the marine protected area economics that come with archipelago control.

Financial center: from FATF grey list to USD 700 billion AUM #

Mauritius spent 16 months on the Financial Action Task Force grey list between February 2020 and October 2021, and on the European Union AML high risk list from May 2020 until removal in March 2022. The Financial Services Commission and the Bank of Mauritius implemented the FATF action plan covering 58 recommendations, with focus on beneficial ownership transparency, supervision of designated non financial businesses, and cross border investigation cooperation. The October 2021 plenary delisting and the 2022 EU removal restored the country's standing as a credible offshore jurisdiction.

FSC statistics for end 2024 record 866,000 active Global Business Companies and Authorized Companies. Total assets under management across Global Business funds, banks, and management companies exceed USD 700 billion based on Bank of Mauritius and FSC consolidated reporting. The double taxation avoidance agreement network, with India, China, Singapore, the United Kingdom, France, and 39 other jurisdictions, remains the structural anchor. The 2016 protocol to the India treaty phased out capital gains exemption on Indian portfolio investment, and ended the period in which more than one third of FDI into India was routed through Mauritius. The current value proposition is regulatory predictability, full English language common law, and a 15 percent corporate tax with partial exemption regimes for global headquarters and treasury centers, in active competition with Kenya's Nairobi International Financial Centre, Rwanda's Kigali International Financial Centre, and the Dubai International Financial Centre. The IMF Article IV consultation of December 2024 noted financial sector resilience but flagged sovereign debt at approximately 80 percent of GDP and the need for fiscal consolidation under the new government.

Tourism and the recovery to 1.4 million arrivals #

The pandemic shock cut Mauritian tourist arrivals from a peak of 1.40 million in 2018 to 384,000 in 2020 and 179,000 in 2021. Statistics Mauritius records 2024 arrivals at 1,383,000, up from 1,295,000 in 2023, recovering to within 1.4 percent of the 2018 peak. Tourism receipts in 2024 reached MUR 92 billion (approximately USD 2.0 billion), per Bank of Mauritius balance of payments data, financing roughly half of the persistent current account deficit. France, the United Kingdom, Reunion, Germany, and South Africa remain the top five source markets, with India and the Gulf Cooperation Council states the fastest growing. The sector employs approximately 32,000 people directly and supports an estimated 100,000 jobs across hospitality, transport, and crafts.

The Ramgoolam government has signaled a shift in tourism strategy from volume to value. Air Mauritius, the loss making national carrier under judicial administration since 2020 and re emerged in 2022, remains the structural bottleneck. The Saint Brandon and Agalega outer island development plans, with Indian assistance on Agalega's airstrip and jetty, reframe the tourism map around marine protected zones and high yield ecotourism, in line with the blue economy strategy.

Energy, blue bonds, and the Olympia LNG concept #

Mauritius generates approximately 3.0 terawatt hours of electricity annually, of which around 80 percent comes from imported coal and heavy fuel oil per the Central Electricity Board. The Olympia Energy LNG to power concept advanced in 2023 and 2024 envisages a 250 megawatt combined cycle plant fed by a floating storage and regasification unit at Albion or Pointe aux Caves, replacing two coal units at Saint Louis. The capital cost is estimated at USD 600 million to USD 800 million. The project depends on long term LNG supply, terminal siting approval, and grid integration with the planned 280 megawatt of utility scale solar identified in the Renewable Energy Roadmap 2030. Final investment decision was not taken under the Jugnauth government and remains a Ramgoolam cabinet decision for 2026.

On the capital markets side, Seychelles issued the world's first sovereign blue bond in October 2018 for USD 15 million with World Bank and Global Environment Facility credit enhancement. Mauritius followed with an inaugural sovereign blue bond placed in 2024, with proceeds earmarked for marine protected areas, port decarbonization, and coastal climate adaptation. The Bank of Mauritius and the Ministry of Finance have signaled a pipeline of follow on issuances and a sustainability linked sovereign framework, capitalizing on the post Chagos EEZ expansion and on growing ESG demand from Gulf and Asian institutional buyers.

Through 2030: India, the GCC, and the regional banking contest #

Three medium term scenarios frame Mauritian strategy through 2030. The base case holds AUM growth at 6 to 8 percent per annum, tourism arrivals reaching 1.55 million by 2027, the Chagos treaty ratified in 2025 or 2026, and fiscal consolidation reducing debt to 73 percent of GDP. The upside case adds Olympia Energy LNG final investment decision, two further sovereign blue bond issuances, and India's Strategic Defence Partnership extending to a permanent maritime surveillance role from Agalega. The downside case has a Trump administration veto on the Chagos transition, US disengagement from the financial trust pillar, fresh FATF scrutiny if beneficial ownership reporting weakens, and tourism plateauing below 1.4 million on Air Mauritius capacity constraints.

For industrial policy and supply chain buyers, three positions look defensible. First, Mauritian financial firms are credible African platform managers for ESG capital, with a record competitive with Kigali and Nairobi. Second, the Princes Tuna processing footprint anchors value added seafood industrialization across the Indian Ocean, with Hochfeld providing European retail distribution. Third, the post Chagos marine spatial plan creates a procurement pipeline in surveillance, fiber, port logistics, and renewables that India, France, the United States, and Gulf players will all bid into. Mauritius is small. Its ocean is not. Through 2030 the binding constraint is execution capacity, not opportunity.

Sources #

• Bank of Mauritius statistical bulletin and balance of payments 2024
• Statistics Mauritius international travel and tourism 2024
• Financial Services Commission Mauritius statistical bulletin and Global Business reporting
• IMF Article IV Consultation Mauritius December 2024
• World Bank Mauritius country overview and macro poverty outlook
• FATF Mauritius mutual evaluation and follow up reports
• ICJ Advisory Opinion Legal Consequences of the Separation of the Chagos Archipelago February 25 2019
• UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office statement on UK Mauritius political agreement October 3 2024
• UN Convention on the Law of the Sea Continental Shelf submissions Mauritius and Seychelles
• FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Country Profile Mauritius
• Indian Ocean Tuna Commission nominal catch database
• African Development Bank Indian Ocean blue economy strategy and Mauritius country strategy paper
• World Bank Seychelles sovereign blue bond October 2018
• Ministry of Finance Economic Planning and Development Mauritius national budget 2024 2025
• Electoral Commissioner's Office Mauritius general election results November 10 2024
• US Department of Defense Diego Garcia installation statistics and Defense Manpower Data Center