The trade and tariff entries on the firm's 2026 watchlist. Each event names what we are watching for and links to the most relevant insight on file.
USTR Section 301 final remedy on China-built ship port-call fees and the SHIPS Act FY27 authorization process.
Watching for Whether the per-port-call fee survives Federal Register comment and how Korean and Japanese yard JVs accelerate to absorb the demand pivot.
Danantara Indonesia (sovereign wealth fund) first major commitments plus the IA-CEPA built-in mid-term review under the Australia-Indonesia comprehensive partnership.
Watching for Whether nickel downstream rules and Future Made in Australia tax credits open new Class I battery joint ventures.
The first six-year review of USMCA. Three parties confirm or open the 16-year sunset window.
Watching for Whether the joint review communique affirms continuation or pre-stages a structural renegotiation.
Six-year mandatory review of USMCA per Article 34.7. Requires unanimous extension to 2042; otherwise annual reviews until 2036 expiry. Trump tariff posture and Sheinbaum response set the tempo.
Watching for Whether the partners agree to extend before deadline, whether China-content rules tighten, and whether autos rules of origin are renegotiated.
US Treasury IRA 30D first-year review on critical minerals FEOC compliance, with Indonesia HPAL Class I sulphate eligibility as the binding test.
Watching for Whether non-Chinese partner structures at Vale, Eramet, KFM lead to Class I battery-grade sulphate Tier 1 eligibility under 30D.
The Democratic Republic of Congo Ministry of Mines is reviewing the 2018 Code Minier royalty schedule. Cobalt and copper export tax adjustments under consideration.
Watching for Whether the export royalty rate moves up and the implication for CMOC, Glencore, and the Indonesian HPAL substitution flow.
Autoridad del Canal de Panama FY27 toll structure announcement. FY2023 USD 4.97B revenue baseline. Gatun Lake 2023 to 2024 drought reduced transits 32 to 22 daily slots.
Watching for Whether toll restructuring lifts neopanamax LNG/LPG slot floor, and Rio Indio reservoir financing milestone.
USTR Section 301 cumulative tariff stack on China review. 2024 review increases (EVs 100 percent, lithium-ion batteries 25 percent, semiconductors 50 percent, solar cells 50 percent). 2018 $660B bilateral peak vs 2024 $580B.
Watching for Trump second-term reciprocal regime evolution, China retaliation (84 percent rate, rare earth licensing), transshipment via Vietnam/Mexico.