The election and political entries on the firm's 2026 watchlist. Each event names what we are watching for and links to the most relevant insight on file.
Hungarian general election. Fidesz vs Tisza (Peter Magyar) under the May 2025 polling lead for Tisza, with EUR 22B EU funds frozen as the binding constraint.
Watching for Whether the Tisza lead translates into a parliamentary majority and how Brussels recalibrates conditionality, BYD Szeged, and Paks II.
Two-year anniversary of the Government of National Unity, plus the ANC National General Council that sets the run-up to the December 2027 elective conference.
Watching for Whether ANC retains internal control under Mashatile-vs-Mbalula succession, whether DA holds out on BELA and NHI, and whether MK consolidates KZN.
One year of the Lee Jae-myung administration after the June 2025 snap election, with Bank of Korea Q2 MPC and the chip industrial policy review.
Watching for Whether the AI sovereign fund framework, chaebol governance reforms, and KRW recovery path stabilize the post-Yoon political-economic adjustment.
Mid-term federal congressional elections plus several state-level races. Sheinbaum's first electoral test.
Watching for Whether Morena and allies retain the supermajority that enables constitutional reform.
Smer-SNS-Hlas coalition arithmetic stress under VAT 23 percent and Article 7 EU rule of law procedure pressure. Fico TurkStream 2 lever and Russia gas dependency narrative active.
Watching for Whether Hlas peels off from Fico, OLO spread reaction, and EU funds disbursement freeze risk.
Frelimo party congress and the World Bank Country Partnership Framework review one year after the disputed October 2024 election.
Watching for Whether the Chapo administration retains Frelimo internal control and how donors recalibrate budget support given the protest cycle.
First round of the Brazilian general election. Lula reelection bid against the right-wing field led by Tarcisio de Freitas, with PT-PL coalition arithmetic in the National Congress.
Watching for Whether arcabouco fiscal sustainability and the 2025 Selic peak shape the runoff between Lula and the leading right-wing challenger.
CCM Hassan re-election cycle synced with Equinor and Shell Lindi LNG host government agreement timing. Equinor Block 2 and Shell Blocks 1 and 4.
Watching for Whether the host government agreement closes, TPS Lobito Atlantic corridor financing, and IMF ECF Tanzania program review.
Municipal runoff round, plus the 2027 federal budget submission to Congress. PT vs centrao bloc contest tightening.
Watching for The 2027 primary surplus signal and the fiscal anchor durability under Lula's third year.
Suluhu Hassan presidential and parliamentary elections. CCM continuity vs Chadema opposition test.
Watching for Continuity of TPDC and gas-FID-friendly stance versus a Chadema upset risk premium.
House (435), Senate (35 of 100), and 36 gubernatorial races. The Trump coalition's first electoral test in the second term.
Watching for Senate map (Class 2 cycle), House marginal districts, and the policy-coalition implications for the 2027 fiscal cliff debates.
House and one-third Senate. TCJA sunset provisions context. CBO baseline projects net interest 4.1 percent of GDP by 2034.
Watching for Whether trifecta forms or splits, post-OBBBA fiscal and trade policy mandate, and Section 232 / 301 momentum into year two.
Mayoral, council, and county magistrate races across the island. KMT vs DPP local-government balance.
Watching for Whether the Lai administration's first-term local-government test reshapes the cross-strait policy texture.
Brussels regional vacuum since June 9, 2024 election. MR-Engagés-Vooruit-CD&V talks ongoing. EU Commission 4.4 percent of GDP deficit and 105 percent debt under EDP review.
Watching for Whether Brussels regional government forms before federal capital gains tax design finalizes, and impact on Solvay/UCB/GSK chemical-pharma cluster.
Provincial congresses across Vietnam through autumn 2026, ahead of the 14th National Congress in January 2026 confirmed slate of senior cadres.
Watching for General Secretary succession path and the FDI policy continuity signal.