The 2026 to 2027 LNG supply wave: 130 mtpa of new liquefaction, Henry Hub pressure, and the buyer's window

The 2025 to 2027 capacity stack: 130 mtpa nameplate, six anchors #

The capacity stack is concentrated in two basins. The United States Gulf Coast adds 72.5 mtpa of nameplate liquefaction across Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3, Golden Pass, Rio Grande Phase 1, and Port Arthur Phase 1, with first cargoes spread across late 2024 (Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3), end 2026 (Golden Pass), and mid to late 2027 (Rio Grande, Port Arthur). Qatar adds 48 mtpa across North Field East and North Field South, lifting the country from 77 mtpa at end 2024 to a contracted 142 mtpa by 2030 once North Field West (16 mtpa) reaches Final Investment Decision, expected in 2026 per QatarEnergy public statements at the February 2025 Doha press briefing. The Senegal Mauritania Greater Tortue Ahmeyim FLNG project, operated by BP with Kosmos, Petrosen, and SMHPM, achieved first cargo in February 2025 at 2.5 mtpa nameplate. LNG Canada at Kitimat shipped its first cargo on June 30, 2025 and is ramping the two train 14 mtpa Phase 1, with a Phase 2 expansion still pre Final Investment Decision.

Mozambique remains a wild card. Eni's Coral South FLNG (3.4 mtpa) has produced since November 2022, but the onshore TotalEnergies Mozambique LNG (12.9 mtpa, Area 1) remains under force majeure declared in April 2021 after the Cabo Delgado attacks, with a planned restart through 2026 contingent on the security perimeter. ExxonMobil Rovuma LNG (15.2 mtpa, Area 4) is pre Final Investment Decision. Argentina's Southern Energy FLNG joint venture between YPF, Pan American Energy, and Golar targets 2027 first cargo at 2.45 mtpa, outside the 2026 to 2027 wave at any material scale.

Henry Hub feedgas: 16 Bcf per day demand against 105 Bcf production #

United States feedgas to LNG terminals averaged 13.6 Bcf per day in 2024 per EIA Natural Gas Weekly. The Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 ramps lifted feedgas to 16.0 Bcf per day in March 2026 (EIA Short Term Energy Outlook April 2026), with the EIA STEO base case projecting 17.5 Bcf per day average for 2027 once Golden Pass and the Rio Grande first trains add demand. Marketed gas production averages 105.4 Bcf per day in 2026 per the same STEO release, against marketed dry production of 102.7 Bcf per day. The structural read is that LNG demand absorbs roughly 16 percent of marketed gas production at full ramp, against 12 percent in 2024.

Henry Hub front month settled at USD 3.05 per million British thermal units in December 2024, USD 2.30 in February 2026, and USD 3.40 on the 2027 forward strip per CME settlement data. The curve embeds a USD 0.50 to USD 0.80 premium for incremental LNG pull from late 2026, but does not embed Permian takeaway risk. Permian dry gas production hit 25.0 Bcf per day in March 2026 per EIA Drilling Productivity Report, against takeaway of 27.5 Bcf per day. Matterhorn Express (2.5 Bcf per day, in service November 2024) and Blackcomb (2.5 Bcf per day, H2 2026) push takeaway to 30 Bcf per day. The 2026 risk is that Waha cash trades at minus USD 1.00 to minus USD 2.00 per million British thermal units in shoulder seasons before Blackcomb is in full service, a recurrence of the May 2024 negative print pattern.

TTF, JKM, and the arbitrage compression #

TTF month ahead averaged EUR 35.2 per megawatt hour (USD 11.10 per million British thermal units at EUR 1.085) in 2024, with JKM front month at USD 11.85 per million British thermal units per Argus Media data. The historical Atlantic to Pacific arbitrage of USD 1.50 to USD 2.50 per million British thermal units, large enough to carry a US Gulf cargo to Tokyo via the Cape route, has compressed to USD 0.40 to USD 0.80 in Q1 2026 as new Plaquemines and Corpus Christi cargoes hit both basins. Cape route economics turn negative at JKM TTF spreads below USD 0.55 per million British thermal units after USD 1.85 bunkers and 65 day round trip, and Panama Canal slot allocation for LNGc tonnage remains rationed at four to six per week.

The TTF winter 2026 to 2027 strip sits at EUR 33 per megawatt hour at USD 1.0925, equivalent to USD 10.40 per million British thermal units, 35 percent below the August 2022 peak of EUR 311 but still 2.7 times the 2010 to 2019 average of EUR 18. European storage cleared the 2025 to 2026 winter at 36 percent on April 1, 2026 per Gas Infrastructure Europe, against the 50 percent five year average and the 90 percent November 1 target. The Commission has flagged a possible relaxation of the 90 percent threshold to 80 percent for winter 2026 to 2027 to ease summer demand during the new build commissioning period.

Buyer mix: SPA portfolio under the new build #

The buyer mix tells the story of the wave. Chinese national oil companies and aggregators (Sinopec, CNPC, ENN, Foran) hold 18 mtpa of contracted volume across the 2026 to 2027 wave, against a 2024 Chinese LNG import baseline of 76.6 mtpa per the General Administration of Customs of China. Indian buyers (GAIL, Petronet) hold roughly 5 mtpa of new volume against 25 mtpa imports in 2024 (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India). The mature JKT trio, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, holds limited new volume of about 6 mtpa across the wave because incumbents are letting legacy contracts roll and rebalancing into shorter tenor portfolio buys. European utilities (Engie, RWE, Uniper, Naturgy) hold roughly 12 mtpa of new United States volume, but the European long term contracting reluctance is structural: the EU Methane Regulation 2024 or 1787, in force May 2024, applies measurement, reporting, and verification thresholds to LNG imported into the European Union from January 1, 2027, with maximum methane intensity values to follow.

The Venture Global commercial dispute with Shell, BP, Edison, Galp, Repsol, and Orlen, centered on Calcasieu Pass first cargoes shipped on the spot market while long term Sale and Purchase Agreement counterparties were told the plant was in commissioning, sits in International Chamber of Commerce arbitration in London with damages claims totalling USD 6.5 billion as of January 2026 filings. The outcome will set precedent for the legal definition of commercial operations date in liquefaction Sale and Purchase Agreements.

Trump January 2025, the DOE pipeline, and second wave Final Investment Decision risk #

President Trump signed Executive Order 14154 on January 20, 2025, which lifted the Biden administration January 26, 2024 pause on non Free Trade Agreement export authorizations issued by the Department of Energy. The Department of Energy under Secretary Chris Wright issued conditional non Free Trade Agreement authorizations for Commonwealth LNG (9.5 mtpa, February 14, 2025), CP2 (Calcasieu Pass 2, 28 mtpa, March 26, 2025), and Magnolia LNG (8.8 mtpa, April 2025). The Bureau of Industry and Security has parallel jurisdiction on equipment exports to sanctioned destinations, but the binding constraint on second wave Final Investment Decision has shifted from policy approvals back to commercial fundamentals.

The second wave projects pre Final Investment Decision as of April 2026 are Calcasieu Pass 2 (28 mtpa, Venture Global), Rio Grande Phase 2 (5.4 mtpa, NextDecade), Port Arthur Phase 2 (13.0 mtpa, Sempra), Driftwood Phase 1 (11.0 mtpa, Tellurian, now Woodside controlled), Lake Charles LNG (16.5 mtpa, Energy Transfer), Commonwealth LNG (9.5 mtpa), Magnolia LNG (8.8 mtpa), Texas LNG (4.0 mtpa), Delfin (13.2 mtpa), and Cameron Phase 2 (6.75 mtpa). The aggregate is 116 mtpa, of which Strategos models a 35 to 45 mtpa Final Investment Decision clearance through 2027 under a base case in which Henry Hub long dated tenor sits at USD 3.50 to USD 4.00 per million British thermal units and JKM long dated at USD 9.50 per million British thermal units. The bear case at USD 8.00 per million British thermal units JKM and USD 4.50 Henry Hub clears 20 mtpa or less and pushes second wave first cargoes to 2030 and beyond.

Russian LNG is a separate question. Yamal LNG (16.5 mtpa, Novatek led) continues to ship to European, Chinese, and Indian buyers under existing contracts, although the EU 14th sanctions package adopted in June 2024 prohibited transshipment through European ports from March 2025. Arctic LNG 2 (19.8 mtpa nameplate, Novatek led) was sanctioned by the United States Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control in November 2023, has produced no commercial cargoes through Q1 2026, and functions as stranded capacity. The reroute of Yamal volumes around European ports adds 4 to 6 voyage days and 0.3 to 0.5 mtpa of effective capacity loss.

2026 to 2027 implications: the buyer's window, the shipping overhang, and the price floor #

The 2026 to 2027 supply wave defines a roughly 18 month buyer's window. Strategos models a TTF price band of USD 7.50 to USD 10.50 per million British thermal units across calendar 2027, against a USD 11.10 average in 2024, and a JKM band of USD 8.00 to USD 11.00 per million British thermal units. The Henry Hub structural floor sits at USD 2.80 to USD 3.20 per million British thermal units, anchored by associated gas economics in the Permian and the increased call from LNG. The 116 vessel LNGc orderbook at end 2024 (Clarksons Research) and the 340 plus vessel total LNGc orderbook through 2028 generates a structural shipping overhang: charter rates for 174,000 cubic meter tri fuel diesel electric tonnage averaged USD 24,000 per day in February 2026 (Spark Commodities), against a 2022 winter peak of USD 450,000 per day. The reorganization of voyage patterns around Yamal volumes, Cape versus Panama routing, and the European storage refill cycle will determine whether 2026 winter charter rates revisit USD 100,000 per day or stay below USD 50,000.

The European policy frame remains consequential. EU methane regulation, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism transition through 2026, the storage refill obligation, and the energy taxation directive interact with the supply wave to constrain spot purchases that lack methane intensity certifications. Buyers without long term Sale and Purchase Agreements covering 60 to 70 percent of demand face a structural exposure to summer 2027 storage refill on a market that will likely be tight despite the headline glut, because the wave's cargo placement is concentrated in winter peak deliveries. Asian buyers, by contrast, retain optionality on coal to gas switching at JKM below USD 9.00 per million British thermal units, and Chinese demand elasticity is the dominant marginal price setter through 2027.

Strategos recommends three actions for European utility buyers. First, lock 30 to 40 percent of 2027 to 2032 base demand under 12 to 15 year Henry Hub plus liquefaction fee Sale and Purchase Agreements with Cheniere, Sempra, and NextDecade, indexed at Henry Hub plus USD 2.40 per million British thermal units, which backs out to USD 5.50 delivered Europe at current Henry Hub forwards. Second, take 10 to 15 percent under three to five year portfolio buys from Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, and Equinor. Third, retain 25 to 35 percent on spot to capture the wave's first cargo discount and the post 2027 ramp surplus. For Asian aggregators, delay long tenor contracting to 2027 vintages, back into Brent linked Qatari volumes at slope settlement of 12.5 to 13.5 percent, and reserve regasification slot capacity at floating storage and regasification units in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Bangladesh to capture incremental South and Southeast Asian demand that Strategos estimates at 18 to 22 mtpa cumulative through 2030.

Sources #

• EIA Short Term Energy Outlook April 2026, natural gas section
• EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update, LNG feedgas series
• EIA Drilling Productivity Report, Permian region
• IEA Gas Market Report Q1 2026
• Cedigaz Global LNG Trade Statistics 2024 and 2025 update
• Shell LNG Outlook 2025
• BP Energy Outlook 2024 (now Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024)
• QatarEnergy press releases on North Field East and North Field South
• Cheniere Energy Q4 2025 investor presentation, Corpus Christi Stage 3 ramp
• Venture Global LNG Form 10-K 2024 and Plaquemines commissioning disclosures
• Sempra Infrastructure investor materials, Port Arthur LNG Phase 1
• NextDecade investor materials, Rio Grande LNG Phase 1
• Argus LNG Daily, JKM and TTF assessments
• Platts JKM monthly assessment methodology, S&P Global Commodity Insights
• ICE Endex TTF settlement data
• CME Henry Hub natural gas futures settlements
• Gas Infrastructure Europe AGSI storage data
• United States Department of Energy non FTA export authorizations
• Clarksons Research, LNG carrier orderbook
• Spark Commodities LNG freight assessments
• European Commission, EU Methane Regulation 2024 or 1787
• United States Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control, Russia related sanctions