The monetary policy entries on the firm's 2026 watchlist. Each event names what we are watching for and links to the most relevant insight on file.
RBI Monetary Policy Committee. Repo at 6.00 percent on the eve of the meeting; food inflation glide path the swing factor.
Watching for Whether the MPC delivers a third consecutive cut or pauses on monsoon and tariff risk.
Federal Open Market Committee policy decision and quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. Markets pricing roughly two cuts through year end on the eve of the meeting.
Watching for Whether the SEP dot path moves down with markets or holds the policy rate above 4 percent through 2026.
MPC vote and Monetary Policy Report. UK headline CPI tracking near 3 percent; gilt market still digesting the November Budget.
Watching for Whether the dovish minority on the MPC widens, and the gilt term premium reaction.
South African Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee. Repo at 7.75 percent. Post FATF gray list exit and GNU stability tested.
Watching for Whether the MPC delivers another cut and the ZAR response to the GNU's first full budget cycle.
ECB rate decision and quarterly staff projections. Eurozone HICP near 2 percent target; the deposit facility rate the marginal policy lever.
Watching for Whether Lagarde signals a pause vs. one more cut, and the divergence in voting preferences across hawk-dove axis.
RBI MPC June meeting with the Malhotra rate-cut endpoint near 5.50 percent and JPM GBI-EM India weight at full 10 percent for full year.
Watching for Whether the cutting cycle ends, whether INR holds 87 to 89 to USD, and whether FPI debt inflows sustain past USD 30 billion.
Banco de la Republica Monetary Policy Committee. Repo at 9.50 percent. Petro-era fiscal pressure on the disinflation path.
Watching for Whether the MPC continues toward 8.50 percent or pauses on the wider fiscal deficit and CARF verdict.
RBA cash rate path with mortgage roll-off largely complete, plus APRA review of the 3 percent serviceability buffer.
Watching for Whether the cash rate prints below 3.50 percent, whether APRA softens the 3 percent buffer, and whether net migration target holds at 260k.
BoJ MPM decision and Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. Policy rate near 0.50 percent; JGB yields at decade highs.
Watching for Whether Ueda signals a third hike toward 0.75 percent, and the JPY reaction.
Federal Reserve mid-year SEP refresh. The dot plot through 2028 gets its second look of the year.
Watching for Real-rate path implied by the new SEP and any change to the longer-run dot.
BoJ semiannual Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices plus the next rate decision against the JGB taper schedule.
Watching for Whether the Ueda BoJ accelerates beyond 0.75 percent and how the JPY 6T to JPY 3T monthly purchase taper interacts with life insurer JGB demand.
Norges Bank Monetary Policy Report. Krone trade-weighted index the key transmission lens.
Watching for Whether the policy rate path through 2027 reflects the offshore wind capex slowdown.
Central Bank of Kenya Monetary Policy Committee. Successor IMF program negotiation in progress; Eurobond 2024 partial buyback residual maturing.
Watching for Whether the CBK signals further cuts and the IMF successor program staff-level agreement.
ECB summer policy decision before the August recess.
Watching for Whether the deposit rate path is set to terminate or carry one more cut into autumn.
Federal Reserve mid-summer policy decision. No SEP refresh; press conference only.
Watching for Whether Powell offers forward guidance on a September cut or holds the line.
FOMC minutes window covering balance sheet reinvestment normalization. Treasury runoff cap at 25 billion per month after May 2024 step-down.
Watching for Whether the Committee announces an end to runoff and the SOMA portfolio composition policy.
Kansas City Fed annual symposium. The marquee central-banker forum.
Watching for Powell or Bowman keynote framing of the policy rate trajectory through 2027.
ECB autumn rate decision and quarterly staff macro projections.
Watching for The 2027 to 2028 inflation path and any signal on the asset purchase program runoff.
Federal Reserve quarterly SEP refresh. Markets historically positioned for a September cut in cutting cycles.
Watching for The terminal-rate signal in the longer-run dot and the cumulative cut count through year-end.
Federal Reserve pre-election policy decision.
Watching for The political optics of any rate move in the week before the US midterms.
Governing Council decision on the post-2026 floor system Structural Bond Portfolio (SBP) size and composition, plus the next operational framework review.
Watching for Whether the SBP introduction restarts net Eurosystem purchases and how this interacts with the EUR 700 billion 2026 sovereign issuance load.
ECB year-end rate decision and quarterly projections.
Watching for The terminal rate signal heading into 2027 and the budget arithmetic for France, Italy, and Germany.
Federal Reserve year-end SEP refresh. The post-midterm policy posture in print.
Watching for The 2027 dot path conditional on the post-midterm Congress.
Bank of Japan year-end policy meeting and quarterly Outlook Report.
Watching for Whether the policy rate exits 2026 above 0.50 percent and the FY2027 inflation forecast.