The fiscal and budget entries on the firm's 2026 watchlist. Each event names what we are watching for and links to the most relevant insight on file.
National People's Congress sets the 2026 growth target, special bond issuance quota, and operationalises the Three-Year Action Plan on local government debt risk.
Watching for Whether the local government bond quota exceeds the CNY 6T plus CNY 4T frame and how the property sector white list converts into completion volumes.
Egypt IMF EFF sixth review, Senegal hidden debt resolution, Mozambique Tuna Bond UK Court of Appeal, Kenya 2026 Eurobond refi, plus possible new Common Framework cases.
Watching for Whether the Common Framework throughput exceeds 12 months for the next case and how China's bilateral position on haircuts evolves.
Quarterly refunding statement. Coupon size, TIPS allocation, and the auction calendar for the August to October cycle.
Watching for Whether bills share rises further or coupons take more of the deficit financing burden.
First formal review under the USD 1.4 billion 40-month Extended Fund Facility approved February 2025, including Bitcoin Law amendment compliance.
Watching for Whether the BTC treasury freeze holds and whether the primary surplus path remains on track.
The Yunus interim government's IMF Extended Credit Facility next review. Reform pace on tax administration, exchange rate, and banking sector.
Watching for Whether the IMF program stays on track ahead of the constitutionally-mandated election cycle.
Sixth review under the USD 8B IMF Extended Fund Facility expanded March 6, 2024, with the Article IV consultation track.
Watching for Whether the EGP float, the military-economy divestment list, and Suez revenue normalization keep the program on track or trigger a seventh review augmentation.
Argentina's USD 20 billion Extended Fund Facility next staff-level review.
Watching for Whether the FX and capital control unwind continues on schedule and the BCRA reserve accumulation path.
UK Office for Budget Responsibility Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report. Gilt term premium and TCJA cliff comparison reference.
Watching for Whether OBR debt-to-GDP trajectory steepens, and gilt market reaction in 30y vs 10y spread.
Mid-year quarterly refunding. Sets coupon issuance through October.
Watching for Coupon-vs-bills mix and the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee minutes.
Tax Policy Center and Penn Wharton Budget Model OBBBA distributional analysis update. CBO score of $4.5T conventional / $3.4T base. SALT 40K phase-out at 500K AGI reverting after 2029.
Watching for Distributional ATR shift by quintile, and post-midterm SALT extension probability.
MOF mid-year fiscal update following the Budget 2026 statement and the second tranche of GST Voucher disbursements.
Watching for Whether the NIRC contribution can absorb defense and aging-population spending without further tax steps before 2028.
EDP Council Decision review on Romania fiscal trajectory. Target 0.5 percentage point structural correction per year, 8.65 percent of GDP deficit baseline.
Watching for Whether Bolojan retains majority for VAT and labour reform package, and BNR reaction in OPRE 2y spread.
Russian government tables the 2027 to 2029 federal budget. Defense and national security share continues at war-economy levels.
Watching for Defense and security spending share, the National Wealth Fund liquid balance, and the oil-export discount baked into the macro plan.
Riksdagen budget bill submission. The 2.4 percent of GDP defense path under Total Defence framework.
Watching for Whether the FMV procurement plan keeps the Saab Gripen E and ammunition expansion on schedule.
MoF Saudi Arabia 2027 fiscal year budget statement, with breakeven oil price arithmetic and PIF capital allocation update.
Watching for Whether the deficit path holds with Brent below USD 80, NEOM scope reset implications for PIF, and Aramco dividend stream durability.
Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee report on bills versus coupons composition. Bills share elevated near 22 percent. Foreign holdings under TIC at 8.5 trillion.
Watching for Whether TBAC signals coupon issuance acceleration, and term premium reaction in 10y and 30y.
Cabinet finalizes the FY2027 budget. The 2 percent of GDP defense path closes its five-year envelope here.
Watching for Whether the JPY 43 trillion five-year defense ceiling is hit on schedule or the Ishiba cabinet rolls slippage forward.
Iraqi Council of Representatives expected to vote on the 2027 budget framework. Sudani government durability tested.
Watching for Whether the federal-KRG revenue sharing dispute is resolved and Ceyhan pipeline reopens.
Reeves second full Autumn Budget with OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook update, after the June 2025 Spending Review allocations land.
Watching for Whether Reeves's two fiscal rules hold, the gilt long-end response to issuance, and whether NHS and Defense spending paths force further tax raises.
G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration tranche disbursement window. USD 50 billion mechanism backed by frozen Russian sovereign asset returns at Euroclear.
Watching for Whether the EU portion is fully drawn, US tranche conditionality post midterms, and Hungary EU accession block status.
Modi 3.0 Union Budget FY27 with the PLI scheme extension and ISM second-wave fab approvals.
Watching for Whether the FY27 capex moves above INR 12 lakh crore and whether ISM-2 funds a high-volume logic node beyond Tata-PSMC Dholera.