The geopolitical and security entries on the firm's 2026 watchlist. Each event names what we are watching for and links to the most relevant insight on file.
Demokraatit-led Naalakkersuisut response to Trump statements, EU CRMA Strategic Project disbursement to Tanbreez and Sarfartoq, and Critical Metals Corp project finance close.
Watching for Whether US sovereign wealth interest converts into a binding offtake or financing structure that displaces Shenghe Resources from the rare-earth chain.
Security Action for Europe loan instrument starts first joint procurement allocations under Regulation EU 2025/1112. Member states submit national defense investment plans.
Watching for Initial absorption rate, country participation list, and split of joint vs national procurement.
Constitutional Court ruling on Decree 111 successor and Petroecuador concession round for the post-Yasuni inventory.
Watching for Whether Noboa secures legal cover for militarised operations and whether the bid round attracts majors despite ITT closure.
Resolution path for the Barrick Loulo-Gounkoto USD 5.5 billion tax dispute and the AES mining-code rewrite spillover across Burkina, Niger, and Mali.
Watching for Whether the Barrick arbitration triggers a flight of Western miners and a Chinese or Russian replacement at Loulo-Gounkoto, Sadiola, and Yatela.
UN OSESGY framework progress, Galaxy Leader release status, and Suez Canal Authority Q2 2026 transit volumes against the post-Op Poseidon Archer recovery curve.
Watching for Whether sustained Suez throughput recovery exceeds 70 percent of pre-October 2023 baseline and whether Lloyd's JWC removes Red Sea from listed areas.
Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger formal exit from ECOWAS economic and monetary union arrangements proceeds. AES (Alliance of Sahel States) confederation institutional buildout.
Watching for Whether the AES common currency proposal advances, and the CFA franc transition plan.
Ethiopian Electric Power expected sixth filling cycle. Egypt-Ethiopia diplomatic friction renewed.
Watching for Egyptian water deficit signal and any AU mediation re-engagement attempt.
IAEA Director General report to the Board of Governors on Iran enrichment status post-Resolution 2231 sunset and any UNSC snapback proceedings.
Watching for Whether the 274.6 kg 60 percent UF6 stockpile is auditable under any post-snapback regime, plus any movement above 90 percent enrichment.
Phnom Penh targets Phase 1 earthworks completion from Prek Takeo to Takeo town, with Mekong River Commission consultation pressure from Hanoi.
Watching for Whether the canal earthworks pace and the OFAC trajectory against CPP-linked finance networks force a Sihanoukville compound dismantlement.