The energy and commodities entries on the firm's 2026 watchlist. Each event names what we are watching for and links to the most relevant insight on file.
One-year mark of the Baltic states leaving BRELL and joining continental European synchronous frequency operation.
Watching for Whether grid-frequency stability metrics and capacity-mechanism redesigns hold up through the second winter peak.
Final operational start of the 50-50 Codelco-SQM Salar de Atacama partnership after FNE clearance in December 2024.
Watching for Whether Argentine basin output and the Codelco-SQM JV anchor a price floor for spodumene and brine LCE through 2027.
National capacity auctions across Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. The post 2024 inflation-shock pricing test.
Watching for Strike-price clearing levels and developer participation rates compared to 2023 to 2024 cycles.
Order 2023 implementation cycles in the three largest US ISOs. Ten-year backlog clearing in progress.
Watching for Cleared MW per cluster and the network upgrade cost share for hyperscaler-bound projects.
Production policy review. Brent in the high 60s; voluntary cut compliance on the agenda.
Watching for Whether Saudi Arabia and Russia signal a unwind of voluntary cuts heading into Q3.
Fervo Energy targets first 100 MW from its enhanced geothermal Cape Station in Beaver County, Utah, en route to a 400 MW total build by 2028.
Watching for Whether commissioning timing and capacity factor confirm the EGS levelized cost trajectory under the revised IEA Future of Geothermal scenario.
Ethiopian Electric Power targets the last two GERD turbines reaching commercial operation, taking the dam to full 5,150 MW capacity.
Watching for Egypt and Sudan reaction on the operations protocol, and Ethiopia's electricity-export contracts with Kenya, Djibouti, Sudan, and Tanzania.
X-energy and Energy Northwest target NRC Combined License submission under the ADVANCE Act streamlined timeline for the FOAK Xe-100 deployment.
Watching for Whether the NRC 2-year COL window holds and whether HALEU supply from Centrus Piketon meets the 2028 first-fuel demand.
Restart and stabilisation of Bashayer 2 pipeline flows through Sudanese territory amid continuing RSF operations near Port Sudan.
Watching for Whether sustained flow above 130 kbd lets Juba clear public-sector arrears and avoid a new IMF RCF request.
DOE Office of Electricity reviews the 2030 cost target glide path for long-duration storage, including Form Energy iron-air, Hydrostor CAES, and Energy Vault gravity pilots.
Watching for Whether 2030 LCOS for the leading 100-hour technologies stays on track for the 5 cent per kWh-cycle target.
TotalEnergies-led Papua LNG project (5.4 mtpa) targets EPC kick-off; ExxonMobil-led PNG LNG Train 3 expansion FID expected.
Watching for Whether the joint-venture stakes and offtake hedge for Asian LNG buyers hold through the post-Marape political cycle.
EHPA quarterly report on Q3 2026 heat pump sales across Germany, France, and the Nordics after the 2024 dip and the 2025 to 2026 IRA-driven US ramp.
Watching for Whether the F-Gas Regulation 2024/573 R290 transition, BAFA Heizungsgesetz incentives, and DESNZ Boiler Upgrade Scheme drive a sustained recovery.
National Transmission Company first full operating year, Generation and Distribution legal separation, and IRP 2023 procurement progress against 30 GW renewables target.
Watching for Whether GNU coalition discipline holds for IRP 2023 implementation, including REIPPPP Bid Window 8 and Battery Storage Bid 3 outcomes.
First 1.0 mtpa MIDREX H2-ready module commissioning at the SALCOS green-steel complex.
Watching for Whether the German hydrogen network's 2026 ramp keeps pace with DRI demand under the CBAM definitive phase.
Occidental Stratos (500 ktpa) and Climeworks Mammoth (36 ktpa) deliver first-year removal totals, with Project Cypress and Heirloom-Battelle California Hub progressing.
Watching for Whether throughput hits nameplate, whether 45Q DAC tier USD 180 per t survives Trump admin review, and whether Microsoft and Amazon offtake renews.
Energy Information Administration Short Term Energy Outlook winter heating projection. EIA 2025 STEO had 13.6 mbd 2025 oil and 14.0 mbd 2026 with Permian at 6.40 mbd and US LNG capacity additions Plaquemines, Corpus Christi 3, Rio Grande totaling 40+ mtpa.
Watching for Henry Hub winter premium with 14 plus Bcf/d feedgas demand, JKM/TTF arbitrage, and DUC inventory below 4,200.