Ghana 2026: Cocoa Collapse, IMF Stabilization, and the Mahama Reset

Cocoa production halved, COCOBOD insolvent #

Ghana produced roughly 430,000 tonnes of cocoa in the 2023-24 main crop year per ICCO and the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), the lowest output in over two decades and a 59 percent decline from the 2020-21 peak of 1.05 million tonnes. The 2024-25 season recovered modestly to an estimated 530,000 to 580,000 tonnes per ICCO November 2025 quarterly bulletin estimates, still well below the 800,000 tonne baseline assumed in COCOBOD's syndicated loan covenants. The collapse stems from four compounding shocks, swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD) infecting an estimated 590,000 hectares per CRIG surveillance, galamsey illegal gold mining converting cocoa farms into pit mines particularly in Western and Ashanti regions, structural smuggling of beans across the border to Cote d'Ivoire where farmgate prices were higher under the LID joint pricing mechanism, and an aging tree stock with average orchard age above 30 years versus an optimal 25.

COCOBOD entered fiscal 2024 with USD 1.5 billion plus in syndicated pre-export debt and was unable to deliver contracted beans against forward sales made at USD 2,400 per tonne when ICE futures ran above USD 10,000 per tonne in April 2024. The board defaulted on roughly 250,000 tonnes of forward contracts that were rolled into the 2024-25 season, locking in opportunity losses estimated at USD 1.8 to 2.2 billion versus prevailing spot. The Mahama administration in February 2025 announced a forensic audit of COCOBOD covering 2017 through 2024 and suspended the syndicated pre-export loan facility, replacing it with a smaller USD 800 million domestic syndication anchored by GCB Bank.

The structural fix requires replanting roughly 156,000 hectares of CSSVD-affected farms, reactivating the cocoa rehabilitation program, fencing reserve forest perimeters against galamsey, and negotiating farmgate price parity with Cote d'Ivoire. None of these can lift output above 700,000 tonnes before the 2027-28 season given the 4 to 5 year maturation cycle of new plantings.

ECF, DDEP, and the October 2024 Eurobond exchange #

The IMF Executive Board approved a 36 month Extended Credit Facility on 17 May 2023 for SDR 2.242 billion (about USD 3 billion), with the third review completed on 3 April 2025 releasing a USD 370 million tranche. The fourth review staff level agreement was reached in November 2025, contingent on continued primary surplus performance (target of 1.5 percent of GDP for 2026) and completion of bilateral debt deals with Paris Club and non-Paris Club creditors under the G20 Common Framework.

The Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) closed in February 2023, swapping GHS 87 billion of old bonds into a new package with extended maturities to 2038 and stepped coupons rising from zero in 2023 to 8.35 to 10 percent in subsequent years. Net present value haircuts ranged from 30 to 50 percent depending on the cohort, with pension funds and individual bondholders receiving softer terms than commercial banks. The DDEP triggered USD 1.4 billion in bank recapitalization needs, addressed via the Ghana Financial Stability Fund anchored by the World Bank IDA and government equity.

The external Eurobond exchange closed on 9 October 2024, swapping USD 13.1 billion of old bonds (95.7 percent participation) into two new instruments, a Disco bond at 5 percent stepping to 6 percent with 2026 to 2029 maturities, and a Par bond at 1.5 percent maturing 2037, plus a downside PDI bond. The transaction delivered roughly USD 4.7 billion in nominal debt relief and USD 4.4 billion in cash flow relief through 2026 per Ministry of Finance Ghana announcements. Bilateral negotiations with the Official Creditor Committee co-chaired by China and France concluded in principle in June 2024, with formal MoUs being finalized through 2025.

Mahama victory, MOMO repeal, fiscal reset #

John Dramani Mahama (NDC) won the 7 December 2024 presidential election with 56.6 percent of valid votes against incumbent Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia (NPP) at 41.6 percent, per the Electoral Commission of Ghana final declaration of 9 December 2024. The NDC also captured 183 of 276 parliamentary seats, a working majority that materially reduces legislative friction for the 2025 to 2028 term. Turnout was 60.9 percent, low by Ghanaian standards, reflecting voter fatigue with cost of living pressures including a 54.1 percent inflation peak in December 2022 that had eased to 23.1 percent by November 2024.

The Mahama administration's first 120 day program executed three flagship promises. First, the Electronic Transfer Levy (E-Levy or MOMO tax) introduced at 1.5 percent in May 2022 and reduced to 1.0 percent in 2023 was repealed by Parliament in March 2025, removing a regressive friction on mobile money that had been blamed for a 9 percent contraction in MTN MoMo transaction volumes in its first quarter. Second, the COVID-19 Health Recovery Levy and the betting tax were repealed. Third, the administration committed to maintaining the IMF program targets, signaling continuity to bondholders and ratings agencies.

The fiscal arithmetic remains tight. The 2025 budget targeted a primary surplus of 1.5 percent of GDP and a fiscal deficit (commitment basis) of 3.1 percent of GDP, with debt service absorbing roughly 30 percent of revenue post restructuring versus 70 to 100 percent pre DDEP. Revenue replacement for the repealed levies is being pursued through GRA modernization, VAT base broadening to digital services, and a windfall tax on gold mining super profits.

Bank of Ghana cuts to 21.0 percent, cedi stabilizes #

The Bank of Ghana Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the policy rate from 14.5 percent in March 2022 to a peak of 30.0 percent in July 2023 to combat inflation that had reached 54.1 percent in December 2022, the highest in 22 years. With headline CPI dropping to 11.8 percent year-on-year in March 2026 (BoG MPC press release, 27 March 2026), the MPC has cut the policy rate in stages to 21.0 percent, a cumulative 900 basis points of easing since November 2024. Real ex-post policy rates remain positive at roughly 9 percentage points, well above the 2 to 3 point neutral estimate from BoG research department staff.

The cedi (GHS) traded in a managed band of 14.5 to 16.5 per USD through 2025, versus a low of 17.0 in February 2024 and 8.5 in early 2022 (BoG interbank reference rate). Stabilization reflects four factors, IMF disbursements totaling roughly USD 1.9 billion under the ECF through April 2025, gold for oil and domestic gold purchase programs accumulating reserves, the Eurobond cash flow relief easing FX debt service, and high gold export receipts at LBMA prices above USD 3,200 per ounce in 2025. Gross International Reserves rose to USD 9.2 billion (4.0 months of imports) at end-March 2026 from USD 5.9 billion at end-2023.

Risks to the disinflation path are external food prices, the 2026 cocoa main crop outturn (which determines hard currency inflows in Q1 to Q2 2026), and the pace of fiscal slippage if revenue underperforms. The MPC has signalled a terminal rate near 18 percent if inflation reaches the 8 plus or minus 2 percent target band by end-2026.

Gold offset: Newmont Ahafo and the structural rotation #

Gold has overtaken cocoa as Ghana's dominant foreign exchange earner. Total gold exports reached USD 11.6 billion in 2024 per Bank of Ghana balance of payments statistics, representing roughly 57 percent of merchandise exports versus cocoa at 9 percent and oil at 19 percent. Newmont's Ahafo South operation produced 587 thousand attributable ounces in 2024 per Newmont 2024 Annual Report, and the Ahafo North project commenced first production in October 2025 with 275 to 325 thousand attributable ounces guidance for 2026. AngloGold Ashanti's Iduapriem and Obuasi mines added 491 thousand ounces, and Gold Fields Tarkwa and Damang produced 690 thousand ounces in 2024.

The Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod), established by the Mahama administration in March 2025, consolidated artisanal and small scale gold purchases under a single state buyer at LBMA reference pricing, ending the previous fragmented PMMC and licensed buyer regime that the government estimated was leaking USD 2 billion annually through smuggling. Early operational data from GoldBod suggests recorded ASM gold exports rose from 2.8 million ounces in 2023 to 4.1 million ounces in 2025, lifting tax and royalty receipts.

The structural risk is environmental. Galamsey illegal mining has degraded an estimated 4,500 hectares of cocoa land and contaminated the Pra, Ankobra, and Birim river systems, raising water treatment costs at Ghana Water Company. The Mahama administration declared a state of emergency on illegal mining in selected reserve forests in October 2025 and deployed the Operation Halt task force. Reconciling formalization of ASM with environmental enforcement is the central tension of the 2026 to 2028 mining policy reset.

2026 outlook: stabilization, not yet recovery #

The base case for 2026 is real GDP growth of 4.4 percent (IMF WEO October 2025), inflation of 8 to 11 percent year-end, a primary surplus of 1.5 percent of GDP, and gross reserves above 4 months of imports. The IMF ECF concludes in May 2026 with the sixth and final review; a successor program (likely a precautionary Policy Coordination Instrument or a smaller ECF) is under negotiation, with staff signaling continued engagement.

The downside scenario hinges on three vectors. First, cocoa, if the 2025-26 main crop fails to recover above 500 kt, COCOBOD's restructuring becomes unsustainable and a sovereign assumption of the residual USD 1.5 billion debt becomes likely, breaching the IMF debt anchor. Second, electricity, ECG and Volta River Authority continue to run technical and commercial losses above 30 percent, and dumsor (loadshedding) episodes in late 2025 raise the probability of a tariff shock that re-ignites inflation. Third, gold price reversal, a USD 500 per ounce decline in LBMA gold would reduce 2026 exports by USD 2.4 billion and reopen the FX gap.

For corporates and investors, the playbook is selective. Long Ghana hard currency duration (Disco and Par bonds) at improving fundamentals, neutral on local cedi duration given the disinflation trade is largely priced, overweight gold mining royalties versus cocoa marketing exposure, and watch the COCOBOD audit findings and the Mahama administration's ASM environmental enforcement as the binary catalysts for 2026 to 2027 sovereign credit re-rating.

Sources #

• IMF Country Report Ghana, Article IV and ECF Reviews
• Bank of Ghana Monetary Policy Committee press releases
• Ministry of Finance Ghana, Eurobond Exchange Final Results October 2024
• ICCO Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics
• Electoral Commission of Ghana, 2024 Presidential Election Results
• Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) Annual Report
• Newmont Corporation 2024 Annual Report and Q4 2025 Operations Release
• Ghana Statistical Service Consumer Price Index Bulletin
• World Bank Ghana Economic Update
• Reuters Accra coverage on Ghana debt restructuring and elections
• Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) operational announcements
• S&P Global Ratings Ghana sovereign research