Electoral and political intelligence 2026-04-26 10 minute read

Chile 2025 to 2026 Cycle: The Boric Exit, the Right Reset, and the Copper Lithium Macro

Gabriel Boric leaves office on March 11, 2026, after a single constitutional term, two failed constitutional rewrites, a copper trough at Codelco, and a pension reform that took three years and arrived in the final stretch. The November 2025 first round and the December 2025 runoff put Jose Antonio Kast in La Moneda. The macro that follows is set by copper price, lithium royalty design, the IMF Article IV path, and migration normalization.

Chile closed the Boric administration with the lowest end of term approval since the return to democracy, two rejected constitutional drafts in twenty four months, the lowest Codelco copper output since 1998, and a National Lithium Strategy still in mid implementation. The November 16, 2025 first round produced Jose Antonio Kast of the Partido Republicano with 30.2 percent and Jeannette Jara of the Partido Comunista at 26.8 percent. The December 14, 2025 runoff returned Kast with 53.4 percent against 46.6 percent for Jara, on a Servel certified turnout of 85.4 percent under mandatory voting. The Banco Central de Chile maintained the policy rate at 4.75 percent through Q1 2026, with twelve month CPI at 4.1 percent in March 2025 trending toward the 3 percent target. The IMF Article IV concluded August 2024 projected GDP growth of 2.2 percent in 2024 and 2.5 percent in 2025. Codelco produced 1.32 million tonnes of copper in 2024, the lowest since 1998. SQM and Albemarle delivered 200 thousand tonnes and 80 thousand tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent from the Salar de Atacama. The Kast cabinet inherits a fiscal deficit of 2.9 percent of GDP, a structural deficit of 2.0 percent, and a foreign born population at 1.6 million, 8.5 percent of the resident total. This brief assesses the electoral verdict, the policy inheritance, and where the macro and equity rerating concentrate.

The Boric exit and the verdict on the progressive cycle #

Gabriel Boric took office on March 11, 2022 as the youngest president in Chilean history at age 36, with a Frente Amplio plus Partido Comunista coalition that controlled neither chamber of Congress. The administration closed Q4 2024 with a Cadem Plaza Publica approval rating near 30 percent and a Criteria Research net favorability at minus 32. Boric ran into the first constitutional convention rejection on September 4, 2022 by 61.9 percent against 38.1 percent, then the second constitutional council draft rejection on December 17, 2023 by 55.7 percent against 44.2 percent. Both were Servel certified under mandatory voting, the first under a Frente Amplio aligned convention, the second under a Partido Republicano dominated council, and both produced the same outcome of refusal.

The pension reform passed Congress on January 29, 2025 after almost three years of negotiation, with a phased six percentage point employer contribution on top of the existing ten percent worker contribution to individual accounts, a Seguro Social mutualization sleeve, and a guaranteed solidarity floor. The Direccion de Presupuestos costed the long run fiscal cost at 1.2 percent of GDP. The mining royalty law of 2023, in force from January 1, 2024, raised the effective tax burden on copper producers above 50 thousand tonnes per year to a band of 8 to 26 percent depending on operating margin, against a prior 3 to 7 percent. Cochilco modeled an incremental fiscal yield of 0.45 percent of GDP at copper at 4.20 dollars per pound. The verdict on the cycle, read off the November 2025 first round, is that the median Chilean voter rejected the constitutional left agenda and the security and migration trajectory, and rotated decisively to the Republican right.

The November 2025 first round and the December runoff #

The November 16, 2025 first round registered eight Servel certified candidates. Jose Antonio Kast of the Partido Republicano polled 30.2 percent on a security and fiscal consolidation platform, his third presidential run after 2017 at 7.9 percent and the 2021 runoff loss to Boric at 44.1 percent. Jeannette Jara of the Partido Comunista, who served as Boric's Minister of Labor and steered the pension reform through Congress, polled 26.8 percent and consolidated the official coalition vote after Bachelet declined to run. Evelyn Matthei of the UDI and Renovacion Nacional bloc polled 12.5 percent, the lowest first round result for the traditional center right since 1989. Franco Parisi of the Partido de la Gente polled 19.8 percent on a populist register. Johannes Kaiser of the Partido Nacional Libertario polled 5.4 percent on a libertarian splinter.

The December 14, 2025 runoff between Kast and Jara closed at 53.4 percent against 46.6 percent on a Servel certified turnout of 85.4 percent. Mandatory voting, reinstated under Law 21.524 in March 2023, lifted participation by roughly 35 percentage points relative to the 2017 voluntary first round. Camila Vallejo, the Partido Comunista spokesperson and former government minister, did not run for president and instead led the senatorial slate in the Metropolitan Region. The cabinet announced on January 8, 2026 placed Bernardo Fontaine at Hacienda, Rodrigo Delgado at Interior, and a Republicano team at Mining and Justice, with two UDI ministers retained at Foreign Affairs and Public Works to anchor the coalition with Chile Vamos.

Candidate	Party	First round Nov 16 2025 percent	Runoff Dec 14 2025 percent
Jose Antonio Kast	Partido Republicano	30.2	53.4
Jeannette Jara	Partido Comunista, Unidad para Chile	26.8	46.6
Franco Parisi	Partido de la Gente	19.8	eliminated
Evelyn Matthei	UDI plus RN, Chile Vamos	12.5	eliminated
Johannes Kaiser	Partido Nacional Libertario	5.4	eliminated
Three remaining candidates	various	5.3 combined	eliminated

Chile presidential election November and December 2025, Servel certified results

Codelco, the copper trough, and the structural production question #

Codelco, the state copper company, produced 1.324 million tonnes of fine copper in 2024 against 1.423 million in 2023 and a 2018 peak of 1.806 million. The 2024 result is the lowest since 1998. The Sernageomin and Cochilco registries identify the structural drivers. El Teniente, the world's largest underground copper mine, advanced the Andes Norte and Diamante sectors with delays of roughly 18 months on schedule. Andina hit head grade declines into the 0.65 percent band against a 0.85 percent five year average. Chuquicamata Subterranea ramped slower than the 2014 expansion plan, with 2024 throughput at 110 thousand tonnes per day against the 140 thousand design specification. Salvador's Rajo Inca, the open pit replacement commissioned in 2025, added roughly 90 thousand tonnes but did not offset the El Teniente and Chuquicamata gap.

The Boric appointed Codelco board committed 18 billion dollars across 2024 to 2028 to the Andes Norte block cave, the Chuquicamata Inca pit closure, and Rajo Inca commissioning. Cochilco modeled recovery to 1.55 million tonnes by 2028 contingent on schedule discipline. The Kast administration retained Maximo Pacheco as Codelco chair on the request of the Hacienda team, signaling policy continuity on the production rebuild and the SQM partnership. Each 100 thousand tonne miss against the Cochilco baseline at 4.20 dollars per pound copper subtracts roughly 0.4 billion dollars from Codelco contributions to the Treasury and 0.13 percent of GDP from the consolidated mining tax take.

The lithium strategy and the Atacama partnership #

Boric announced the National Lithium Strategy on April 20, 2023 with three pillars: state participation in all operations through Codelco or a successor entity, public private partnerships in the existing operating salars, and protected area designation across roughly 30 percent of the high lithium concentration salars. Codelco and SQM signed the binding memorandum on December 27, 2023 and the definitive partnership on May 31, 2024, structured as a Codelco controlled joint venture from 2031 in the Salar de Atacama, with SQM retaining minority operational control through 2030. The Codelco Albemarle conversation followed a parallel track and remains in negotiation as of Q1 2026. The SQM production registry reported 200 thousand tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent from the Salar de Atacama in 2024, against 165 thousand in 2023. Albemarle reported 80 thousand tonnes from the same salar.

Chile's share of global lithium chemicals supply, on US Geological Survey 2025 estimates, was roughly 24 percent in 2024, down from 32 percent in 2018 as Australia, Argentina, and China expanded. Cochilco modeled a 2030 envelope of 380 to 420 thousand tonnes contingent on the Salares Altoandinos tender, the Maricunga round, and indigenous consultation under ILO Convention 169. The Kast administration signaled in the cabinet rollout that the strategy framework will hold but the protected area designation will be reduced and the Codelco controlling stake from 2031 will be reviewed. Lithium carbonate spot prices, on the Fastmarkets battery grade index, closed Q1 2026 at 14,200 dollars per tonne against a 2022 peak of 80,000. The price stabilization at the current band makes the marginal volume question, not the price question, the binding variable for Chilean fiscal yield from lithium.

The fiscal stack, the BCCh path, and the constitutional residue #

The Direccion de Presupuestos closed 2024 with a fiscal deficit of 2.9 percent of GDP and a structural deficit of 2.0 percent against a target of 1.9 percent. Public debt stood at 41.6 percent of GDP at year end 2024, against a 2010 baseline of 8.7 percent. The 2025 budget projected a deficit of 1.6 percent on the assumption of copper at 4.30 dollars per pound and lithium at 16,000 dollars per tonne. The Banco Central de Chile policy rate, at the November 2025 IPoM, sat at 4.75 percent after a cumulative 750 basis point cycle of cuts from the October 2022 peak of 11.25 percent. INE reported headline CPI at 4.1 percent year on year in March 2025 with core CPI at 3.7 percent, both above the 3 percent target band. The August 2024 IMF Article IV projected GDP growth of 2.2 percent in 2024 and 2.5 percent in 2025, and flagged the structural deficit and the pension reform fiscal cost as the binding fiscal frame.

The constitutional residue is the political variable the Kast administration must manage. Two rejected drafts left the 1980 Pinochet era constitution as amended in 2005 in force, a configuration neither side defended in the 2021 plebiscite. The Kast platform did not propose a third constitutional process and instead committed to targeted reforms on security, citizenship, and the pension floor through ordinary supermajority procedures. Migration, the surface variable on which the runoff turned, is the second residue. INE estimated the foreign born population at 1.638 million in 2024, 8.5 percent of the resident total, of which Venezuelan nationals were roughly 444 thousand and Haitian nationals roughly 185 thousand. The administration's first decree package on January 12, 2026 tightened northern border enforcement and authorized a six month surge of Carabineros deployment to the Tarapaca and Antofagasta regions.

Indicator	2022	2023	2024	2025 estimate
Real GDP growth percent	2.4	0.5	2.2	2.5
Headline CPI year end percent	12.8	3.9	4.5	4.1
BCCh policy rate year end percent	11.25	8.25	5.00	4.75
Fiscal deficit percent of GDP	1.0 surplus	2.4	2.9	1.6 budget
Public debt percent of GDP	37.9	39.4	41.6	42.0 estimate
Codelco copper output million tonnes	1.553	1.423	1.324	1.380 guidance

Chile macro indicators, BCCh, Dipres, INE, and Cochilco registries

Equity rerating, sovereign curve, and the LATAM cycle implication #

Market response to the December 14 runoff was contained but directional. The IPSA index, on Bolsa de Santiago closing values, rallied 6.8 percent between November 14, 2025 and January 9, 2026, with gains concentrated in the SQM B share, Antofagasta Minerals on the London listing, Banco de Chile, and Empresas Copec. The Chilean peso closed Q1 2026 at 928 against the dollar, against a November 14 close of 962, a 3.5 percent appreciation that tracked the 1.4 percent rise in copper to the 4.32 dollar per pound band on Comex. The Chilean five year sovereign credit default swap tightened from 78 basis points in mid November to 61 basis points in late January, pricing the policy continuity signal from the Pacheco retention and the Fontaine appointment. The hard currency curve, on the 2031 and 2034 dollar bonds, repriced 12 to 18 basis points tighter against the EMBI Global series.

The LATAM cycle implication is the more consequential reading. The 2018 to 2022 progressive ascension in Latin America, marked by Lopez Obrador in Mexico in 2018, Boric in Chile in 2021, Petro in Colombia in 2022, Lula in Brazil in 2022, and Sheinbaum continuity in Mexico in 2024, peaked with the Sheinbaum vote share. The 2023 Milei election in Argentina, the 2024 Noboa consolidation in Ecuador, the 2025 Kast election in Chile, and the 2026 Brazilian and Colombian cycles in front trace a counter rotation. For ESG screened mandates the implication is concentrated in copper and lithium. Chilean copper carries the highest scope two emissions intensity in the major copper producing countries on the International Copper Study Group registry, and Chilean lithium brine production has the lowest water intensity among major lithium chemical sources on the Cochilco and Albemarle disclosed registries. The Kast administration's mining royalty review and the Atacama partnership review will shape the equity rerating envelope through the next twelve months. The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2025 ranked Chile 41st of 67 economies, against a 2018 ranking of 35.

Sources #

Cite this brief

@misc{hossen2026chile2026election2026,
  author = {Hossen, Md Deluair},
  title  = {Chile 2025 to 2026 Cycle: The Boric Exit, the Right Reset, and the Copper Lithium Macro},
  year   = {2026},
  url    = {https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/chile-2026-election-2026},
  note   = {Deluair Consultancy briefs}
}

Hossen, M. D. (2026). Chile 2025 to 2026 Cycle: The Boric Exit, the Right Reset, and the Copper Lithium Macro. Deluair Consultancy briefs. https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/chile-2026-election-2026

Hossen, Md Deluair. "Chile 2025 to 2026 Cycle: The Boric Exit, the Right Reset, and the Copper Lithium Macro." Deluair Consultancy briefs, 2026-04-26. https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/chile-2026-election-2026.

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