Food and agriculture
Commodity volatility meets food security.
Why this topic
Wheat, rice, cocoa, coffee, edible oils, and fertilizer prices feed directly into current-account stress, social safety-net design, and political stability in import-dependent economies. The work covers FAOSTAT and Pink Sheet diagnostics, trade-flow rerouting under export bans, and the food-security trajectory the multilaterals are tracking. Ceres is the production engine.
Recent insights on this topic
Cocoa 2024 to 2026: West African Collapse, Price Shock, and the EUDR Reset
ICE cocoa futures printed an all time high above USD 12,500 per tonne in April 2024, then settled into a USD 7,000 to 9,000 range through Q1 2026. Cote d'Ivoire...
Read brief → 2026-04-26The Coffee Market Crisis 2024 to 2026: Arabica at Fifty Year Highs and the Reordering of Origin Risk
Brazilian arabica drought, Vietnamese robusta stress, and ICE futures at 4.40 dollars per pound have rewritten the cost stack for every roaster, retailer, and o...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Copper and the Electrification Supercycle: Why 2026 Breaks the Bear Case
Codelco below 1.4 million tonnes, Cobre Panama still cold, AI grid copper at 3 to 4 kg per kW, and Chinese smelter TC/RC at zero. The supply side is losing its ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26EU Mercosur 2026: The Political Endgame After Montevideo
The December 2024 political agreement broke a 25 year logjam. The 2026 ratification fight will be won or lost on bifurcation, beef quotas, and whether Paris can...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Ghana 2026: Cocoa Collapse, IMF Stabilization, and the Mahama Reset
Ghana exits 2025 with a halved cocoa crop, a restructured Eurobond stack, and a new Mahama administration. The 2026 question is whether disinflation, gold recei...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Global wheat 2026: Russia's 47 Mt export apex, Egypt's GASC reform, and the post Black Sea Initiative trade map
USDA's April 2026 WASDE places 2025/26 world wheat output at roughly 795 million tonnes against ending stocks of 261 million tonnes, the tightest stocks to use ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26H5N1 in US Dairy 2024 to 2026: A Slow-Motion Pandemic Stress Test
Two years after the first detection of H5N1 genotype B3.13 in a Texas dairy herd, the outbreak has spread to 17 states, infected at least 70 workers, killed one...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Indian rice export policy in 2026: scenario propagation across importers
India sits at the fulcrum of the global rice market, and its 2026 export stance will set the price floor and security ceiling for a dozen import-dependent econo...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Japan Rice Crisis and the Gentan Unwind: Pricing, Politics, and the Reform Window of 2026
Empty supermarket shelves in August 2024, a 60 percent spot price surge, and a reserve release of 210,000 tonnes have shattered the post gentan equilibrium. Koi...
Read brief → 2026-04-26The Lithium Price Collapse: Marginal Cost, Demand Drift, and the 2027 Floor
Lithium carbonate fell 87 percent from the November 2022 peak and has spent five quarters bouncing along the Australian spodumene cost cliff. The recovery path ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Peru Mining Under Boluarte: Political Risk Through the 2026 Election Cycle
President Dina Boluarte enters her last full year of office with single digit approval, a fragmented Congress, and a copper sector that the state cannot afford ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26US Fertilizer Through 2026: Potash, Ammonia, and the Affordability Reset
US growers consumed roughly 21 million tonnes of nitrogen, 4.2 million of phosphate, and 4.5 million of potash in 2024 against a price stack that has retraced t...
Read brief →Related cross-cuts.
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