Defense and geopolitics
The new industrial-defense complex.
Why this topic
Ukraine reconstruction, NATO 2 percent floors, AUKUS submarine timelines, and the antitrust and export-control overlay on dual-use technology have rewired the industrial-policy and trade architecture for the next decade. The work covers FEOC and dual-use scoring, defense procurement and offset analysis, and the geopolitics-driven supply-chain reroute that manufacturers and trade associations are pricing in. Aegis and Strategos are the production engines.
Recent insights on this topic
The AI advertising shock: how generative search is rewiring the 700 billion dollar attention economy
Google Search ad revenue ran 198 billion dollars in 2024, a 12 percent gain that masks a structural threat. ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Claude are bleeding off the...
Read brief → 2026-04-26AUKUS Pillar 1 Submarine Economics 2026: A368bn Across Three Yards
Australia's nuclear submarine bet collides with a US shipyard throughput gap, a 20,000 person workforce mountain, and federal opposition that survived the Alban...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Albanese Second Term, Australia's Labor Reset and the Industrial Policy Pivot
Labor's May 2025 majority of 78 seats locks in Closing Loopholes, same job same pay, and a wage floor of AUD 24.10. Future Made in Australia ties wages, process...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Big Tech Antitrust 2026: From Liability to Remedy
Five active US monopolization cases, EU DMA enforcement entering year two, and a global remedy convergence around interoperability mean the operative question i...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Prague Pivot: Babis, ANO, and Visegrad Fiscal Drift Through 2026
ANO returned to first place in the June 2024 European Parliament election with 26.1 percent, the Fiala SPOLU government lost the October 2025 Sněmovna vote, and...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Western Defense and Aerospace: The 2026 Consolidation Wave
Rheinmetall, Saab, KNDS, and Hanwha are buying scope while Boeing Defense bleeds and Pratt's GTF recall pulls RTX cash. The corporate map of Western airpower is...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Western Defense Industrial Reshoring: Munitions Math in 2026
155mm shells, PAC-3 interceptors, and attritable autonomy collide with TNT scarcity, propellant bottlenecks, and a NATO procurement architecture redesigned for ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Defense M&A in 2026: Primes Consolidate, Drones Reprice, Tier-2 Roll-Ups Compound
NATO 2 percent compliance, the Sondervermoegen, and a USD 2.71 trillion global defense outlay are pulling capital into munitions, autonomy, space, and cyber fas...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Estonia 2026: Digital Sovereignty, NATO's Tip of the Spear, and the BRELL Exit
Tallinn pairs the world's most advanced digital state with the alliance's highest defense burden ratio at 3.43 percent of GDP, even as Eesti Pank cuts rates and...
Read brief → 2026-04-26ReArm Europe and SAFE: how the EU is wiring EUR 800 billion into a defense industrial base
The Commission unveiled the ReArm Europe Plan in March 2025. Council adopted Regulation (EU) 2025/1483 establishing the Security Action for Europe in May 2025. ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26EU Enlargement 2026: Ukraine, Moldova, and the Cluster Negotiation Test
Twenty eight months after the December 14 2023 Council decision, the Ukraine and Moldova files run on the six cluster framework. Cluster 1 Fundamentals is the b...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Germany Under Merz: Fiscal Reset, Defense Buildout, Industrial Triage
The 500 billion euro Sondervermoegen, a softened debt brake, and a NATO 3.5 percent path reframe Germany's macro stance. The harder question is whether industri...
Read brief →Related cross-cuts.
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Frontier and EM macro.Emerging markets
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