Sovereign credit
The new debt cycle.
Why this topic
IMF program math, Common Framework restructurings, and the creditor coordination problem (especially the China bilateral position) define the sovereign credit surface that EM funds, multilaterals, and ministries are working through. The work runs DSA-clearing haircut schedules, fiscal multiplier benches by spending category, and the catalytic-effect math that has to clear before a country can reaccess markets. Axioma and Delphi are the production engines.
Recent insights on this topic
Africa's 2026 Sovereign Restructuring Cycle: Common Framework Outcomes, China Bilateral Geometry, and IMF Program Design
Six African sovereigns defaulted between 2020 and 2024. Zambia, Ghana, Chad, and Ethiopia have now closed Eurobond and bilateral deals. The pipeline runs throug...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Argentina Capital Controls Lifting and the FX Regime Through 2026
On April 11, 2025 the IMF Executive Board approved a USD 20 billion Extended Fund Facility for Argentina, and within seventy two hours the Caputo Bausili team l...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Argentina under Milei: from currency competition to where dollarization actually lands
By April 2026, the Milei program has delivered fiscal surplus and disinflation, but the path from currency competition to formal dollarization remains capital c...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Argentina IMF Year Two: Reserve Build, Cepo Sequencing, and the 2026 Stabilization Bet
The April 11, 2025 USD 20 billion Extended Fund Facility reset Argentina's external anchor. Monthly inflation is near 2 percent, the primary surplus holds, and ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Argentina Year Two: Milei's Fiscal Anchor and the Disinflation Bet
Fifteen months in, the Milei administration has delivered a primary surplus, crushed monthly inflation from 25.5 percent to roughly 2.5 percent, and pulled in a...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Argentina at Year Two: The Milei Stabilization After the IMF Pivot and the 2025 Midterm
Twenty-eight months in, the Milei program has produced a primary surplus, single-digit monthly inflation, a lifted FX cepo with reserves near 23 billion dollars...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Argentina, YPF, and the Burford Judgment: Vaca Muerta Through 2026
A 16.1 billion dollar New York judgment hangs over Argentina's signature reform asset. The Burford Capital litigation, the Milei refusal to settle, and the Vaca...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Australia 2026: Iron Ore Margins, the RBA Pivot, and the Housing Question
Iron ore prices have rolled off their long term average, lithium is in plant level retreat, the Reserve Bank is cutting into a still tight labor market, and a S...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Bangladesh 2026: The Yunus Interim, Fiscal Stress, and the Banking Cleanup
Sheikh Hasina is gone, an interim council under Muhammad Yunus is rewriting the rules, and the macro file sits on a knife edge of single-digit reserves cover, d...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Bangladesh 2026: Yunus, the tariff wall, and the road to a vote
An interim government led by Muhammad Yunus is rewriting the political order while the ready-made garment sector absorbs a US reciprocal tariff shock and the co...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Belgium Under De Wever: The Arizona Gamble and the Federal Split
Bart De Wever, the N-VA leader who built his career arguing Belgium has no future, has been federal prime minister since February 3, 2025. The five-party Arizon...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Brazil fiscal trajectory 2026: the framework, the markets, and the political constraint
Brazil enters 2026 with a credible monetary anchor but a fiscal framework that markets are testing in real time. The next eighteen months will determine whether...
Read brief →Related cross-cuts.
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