Energy transition
The messy economics of decarbonization.
Why this topic
Renewables build, gas-peaker reliance, LNG export queues, hydrogen offtake, SAF feedstock, and CCUS subsidies do not resolve into a single trajectory. The work covers grid interconnection backlogs, capacity-market pricing, behind-the-meter PPA structures, and the policy uncertainty that determines which decarbonization pathway is investible at each horizon. Promethean and Ceres carry the bulk of the modeling.
Recent insights on this topic
Algeria 2026: Europe's pipeline pivot, Sonatrach's USD 50 billion bet, and the Maghreb realignment
After Russia, Algeria is now the second largest pipeline gas supplier to the European Union. Tebboune's second term, the Sonatrach 2027 to 2030 capex cycle, and...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Bermuda Reinsurance Through 2026: Pillar Two, Cat Capacity, and the Florida Pivot
The world's largest reinsurance hub absorbed Helene, Milton, and the January 2025 LA wildfires, raised roughly 18 billion dollars of new Class 4 capital, and on...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Brazil's Green Hydrogen Northeast Cluster: From MoUs to FID
Pecem, Suape, and Acu enter the year after COP30 with a hydrogen law, a 18.3 billion BRL tax credit envelope, and roughly 50 memoranda of understanding signed s...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Canada 2025 to 2026: The Trudeau Exit, the Carney Reset, and the Trump Tariff War
Justin Trudeau resigned the Liberal leadership on January 6, 2025 after a caucus revolt and a Chrystia Freeland resignation that closed the December 16, 2024 fi...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Voluntary Carbon Market Reset: Integrity, Tiers, and the Removal Pivot
ICVCM Core Carbon Principles, VCMI Claims Code 2.0, SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, and Article 6 are bifurcating a market that crashed from 192 megatonnes ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Caribbean climate insurance 2026: CCRIF SPC, parametric scaling, and the sovereign innovation frontier
Hurricane Beryl triggered the largest single payout in the history of the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, USD 87.6 million across four members in...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Catastrophe Bonds and ILS in 2026: The Quietly Maturing Climate Capital Market
Outstanding cat bond capital reached USD 47B at end 2024, up from USD 31B in 2022, after a record USD 17.7B issuance year that survived hurricanes Beryl, Helene...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Carbon capture in 2026: 45Q economics, project pipeline, and the gap between announcements and tonnes stored
The CCUS sector has moved from policy promise to a real but uneven build-out, with roughly 50 facilities operational, a 392-project pipeline that targets seven ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Cement After CBAM: The 2026 Decarbonization Capital Stack
Cement is 7 to 8 percent of global CO2 and 4.1 billion tonnes of output. The 2026 EU CBAM definitive period, IRA 45Q at 85 dollars per tonne, and the first comm...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Climate Displacement 2026: Pacific Visas, Loss and Damage, and the Adaptation Finance Gap
Disaster displacement set a fresh record in 2023, the Falepili Union opened the first dedicated climate mobility pathway, and the Loss and Damage Fund began dis...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Egypt and Eastern Mediterranean Gas: From Exporter to Importer
Zohr's decline, Israel's pipeline lifeline, and idle Idku and Damietta trains have flipped Egypt from regional aggregator to FSRU-dependent importer. The 2026 q...
Read brief → 2026-04-26EU energy independence in 2026: where the diversification math actually clears
Four years after the pipeline shock, the EU has substituted molecules but not yet costs. The 2026 question is whether structural demand destruction and renewabl...
Read brief →Related cross-cuts.
AI and energy
Hyperscaler training and inference build-outs are now the binding load on transmission planning, water rights, and PPA pricing in every major market. The work s...
The supply-chain backbone of decarbonization and AI.Critical minerals
Lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths sit upstream of every EV, every battery, every grid build, and every advanced semiconductor. The work...
The post-2024 trade architecture.Trade and tariffs
Section 301 escalations, Section 232 metals overlays, IEEPA reciprocal regimes, and IRA sourcing rules together produce a tariff stack that no single HS6 line f...
The new debt cycle.Sovereign credit
IMF program math, Common Framework restructurings, and the creditor coordination problem (especially the China bilateral position) define the sovereign credit s...
Commodity volatility meets food security.Food and agriculture
Wheat, rice, cocoa, coffee, edible oils, and fertilizer prices feed directly into current-account stress, social safety-net design, and political stability in i...
Frontier and EM macro.Emerging markets
EM macro in 2026 is dominated by IMF program design, LDC graduation transitions, FX management under Fed-cycle pressure, and industrial-policy bets that have to...
The new industrial-defense complex.Defense and geopolitics
Ukraine reconstruction, NATO 2 percent floors, AUKUS submarine timelines, and the antitrust and export-control overlay on dual-use technology have rewired the i...