Critical minerals
The supply-chain backbone of decarbonization and AI.
Why this topic
Lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths sit upstream of every EV, every battery, every grid build, and every advanced semiconductor. The work covers FEOC compliance under IRA Section 30D, processing-capacity gating, industrial-policy maturity scoring across PLI and equivalents, and the producer geographies (Indonesia, Chile, Australia, the DRC, Vietnam) where the next decade of supply will be contested.
Recent insights on this topic
Aluminum smelting and tariff architecture 2026: Section 232, the LME Russia ban, and the new premium geography
Primary aluminum links trade defense, sanctions enforcement, and a power constrained smelter map. We map the 71 million tonne supply system, the Section 232 sta...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Albanese Second Term, Australia's Labor Reset and the Industrial Policy Pivot
Labor's May 2025 majority of 78 seats locks in Closing Loopholes, same job same pay, and a wage floor of AUD 24.10. Future Made in Australia ties wages, process...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Australia critical minerals 2026: lithium, rare earths, and the IRA-aligned offtake
How Canberra is repositioning Greenbushes, Pilgangoora, and Lynas inside a US friend-shoring perimeter, and what trade analytics teams should model....
Read brief → 2026-04-26Australia and Indonesia 2026: nickel, IA-CEPA, and the Prabowo downstream bet
How Canberra and Jakarta are stitching together a critical minerals corridor under IA-CEPA, the 2024 comprehensive partnership, and the Prabowo 8 percent growth...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Australia 2026: Iron Ore Margins, the RBA Pivot, and the Housing Question
Iron ore prices have rolled off their long term average, lithium is in plant level retreat, the Reserve Bank is cutting into a still tight labor market, and a S...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Bolivia Lithium 2026: The Largest Resource, the Smallest Output
Bolivia holds the world's largest lithium resource at 23 million tonnes, yet 2024 mine production was zero. The CBC and Uranium One contracts, the failed indust...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Chile 2025 to 2026 Cycle: The Boric Exit, the Right Reset, and the Copper Lithium Macro
Gabriel Boric leaves office on March 11, 2026, after a single constitutional term, two failed constitutional rewrites, a copper trough at Codelco, and a pension...
Read brief → 2026-04-26The Lithium Triangle in 2026: Chile's Codelco Pivot, Argentina's Brine Build, Bolivia's Stalled DLE
Chile converted Atacama into a 50/50 Codelco-SQM JV, Argentina's Olaroz, Hombre Muerto, and Rincon expansions target 130,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, and Bolivia's C...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Chile's Lithium Pivot: Reading the SQM-Codelco Joint Venture Through a Trade and Tariff Lens
The Boric administration's National Lithium Strategy is reshaping how Chilean brine reaches battery cathodes. We map the public-private split, DLE pilots, and t...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Cobalt 2026: the DRC chokepoint, the Indonesian flood, and a price floor that has not held
Seventy percent of mined cobalt comes out of one country, three quarters of refining sits in another, and the price has fallen by two thirds since 2022. The cho...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Copper and the Electrification Supercycle: Why 2026 Breaks the Bear Case
Codelco below 1.4 million tonnes, Cobre Panama still cold, AI grid copper at 3 to 4 kg per kW, and Chinese smelter TC/RC at zero. The supply side is losing its ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26DRC, Rwanda, and the M23 Conflict in 2026: East Congo Mineral Economics, Sanctions Geometry, and Battery Supply Chain Exposure
M23 captured Goma in January 2025 and Bukavu in March 2025, with the UN Group of Experts documenting roughly 4,000 Rwanda Defence Force personnel embedded with ...
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