Food and agricultural economics

Summary

Four-engine food and agriculture framework covering farm production, commodity markets, consumption and food security, and policy and fiscal pass-through. Built for multilateral institutions, trade associations, commodity traders, and governments planning around food shocks.

What we do

Food and agriculture economics is multi-scale by construction: a yield shock in the Black Sea wheat basin propagates through commodity futures, then through import-dependent consumer countries, then through CPI, then through fiscal subsidies, and eventually through political risk. The Ceres platform integrates 57 collectors across FAOSTAT, USDA PSD and NASS, World Bank WDI, OWID, WFP, AMIS, NASA POWER, OECD, and IPC.

Engagements deliver named studies on production-shock propagation, food-security and IPC phase analyses for specific country sets, fiscal pass-through models for subsidy reform, and commodity-specific market reads tied to AMIS. The work is calibrated for clients who need defensible scenario math, not for academic publication-cycle work, though replication packages remain standard.

Methods

• Commodity price decomposition (production, demand, stocks, FX)
• IPC phase classification and food security analysis
• Fiscal subsidy pass-through estimation
• Yield shock propagation through trade
• Import dependency mapping
• ENSO and climate-ag yield modeling
• Real disposable income decomposition under food price shock
• Consumer demand systems (Rotterdam, EASI)

Public data partners

• FAOSTAT (production, fertilizer, fisheries, livestock, food balance, GIEWS)
• FAO Food Price Index
• USDA PSD, NASS, WASDE, drought monitor
• World Bank Pink Sheet, GFSP
• OWID food and nutrition series
• AMIS Market Monitor
• IPC Food Insecurity Phase Classification
• WFP HungerMap, Global Crisis Response
• NASA POWER weather, NOAA ENSO state

Deliverables

• Country food security IPC scenario memo
• Commodity-specific market read with shock scenarios
• Fiscal subsidy reform pass-through memo
• Production shock propagation diagnostic
• Quarterly food economics brief subscription

Sample engagements

• Egypt and Pakistan IPC scenario memo for a multilateral country team.
• Fertilizer market shock pass-through for a major commodity trader.
• Wheat export ban scenario propagation for a sovereign wealth food security mandate.
• Bangla rice subsidy reform fiscal pass-through diagnostic for the finance ministry.
• Quarterly food economics brief for an industry association.