Emerging markets
Frontier and EM macro.
Why this topic
EM macro in 2026 is dominated by IMF program design, LDC graduation transitions, FX management under Fed-cycle pressure, and industrial-policy bets that have to clear five-year disbursement tests. The work covers country fiscal panels, external-debt sustainability, and the comparative industrial-policy benchmarking that determines whether a PLI or equivalent is investible. Axioma and Delphi anchor the macro stack.
Recent insights on this topic
Africa's 2026 Sovereign Restructuring Cycle: Common Framework Outcomes, China Bilateral Geometry, and IMF Program Design
Six African sovereigns defaulted between 2020 and 2024. Zambia, Ghana, Chad, and Ethiopia have now closed Eurobond and bilateral deals. The pipeline runs throug...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Argentina Capital Controls Lifting and the FX Regime Through 2026
On April 11, 2025 the IMF Executive Board approved a USD 20 billion Extended Fund Facility for Argentina, and within seventy two hours the Caputo Bausili team l...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Argentina under Milei: from currency competition to where dollarization actually lands
By April 2026, the Milei program has delivered fiscal surplus and disinflation, but the path from currency competition to formal dollarization remains capital c...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Argentina IMF Year Two: Reserve Build, Cepo Sequencing, and the 2026 Stabilization Bet
The April 11, 2025 USD 20 billion Extended Fund Facility reset Argentina's external anchor. Monthly inflation is near 2 percent, the primary surplus holds, and ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Argentina Year Two: Milei's Fiscal Anchor and the Disinflation Bet
Fifteen months in, the Milei administration has delivered a primary surplus, crushed monthly inflation from 25.5 percent to roughly 2.5 percent, and pulled in a...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Argentina at Year Two: The Milei Stabilization After the IMF Pivot and the 2025 Midterm
Twenty-eight months in, the Milei program has produced a primary surplus, single-digit monthly inflation, a lifted FX cepo with reserves near 23 billion dollars...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Bangladesh Policy Bundle Digital Twin: A Five Layer Simulation Case Study
How Aegis stitches institutional graphs, policy domains, legal frameworks, committees, and peer comparisons into a single executable model of the LDC graduation...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Bangladesh LDC graduation 2026: GSP loss arithmetic across EU, UK, Canada, Japan
When duty free access narrows in late 2026, knit and woven apparel exporters face a tariff cliff that varies sharply by destination. We translate the schedules ...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Bangladesh 2026: The Yunus Interim, Fiscal Stress, and the Banking Cleanup
Sheikh Hasina is gone, an interim council under Muhammad Yunus is rewriting the rules, and the macro file sits on a knife edge of single-digit reserves cover, d...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Bangladesh 2026: Yunus, the tariff wall, and the road to a vote
An interim government led by Muhammad Yunus is rewriting the political order while the ready-made garment sector absorbs a US reciprocal tariff shock and the co...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Adaptation finance in 2026: the NCQG arithmetic, the FRLD ramp, and the country platform stress test
Developing country adaptation needs sit between USD 215 and 387 billion per year by 2030, against measured public flows of roughly USD 28 billion in 2022. The B...
Read brief → 2026-04-26Colombia 2026: Petro fiscal arithmetic and the post Bogota electoral year
Gustavo Petro enters his final budget cycle with a 57 percent debt path, a fragile fiscal rule, and an Ecopetrol production curve that no longer finances his so...
Read brief →Related cross-cuts.
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Ukraine reconstruction, NATO 2 percent floors, AUKUS submarine timelines, and the antitrust and export-control overlay on dual-use technology have rewired the i...