Trade and tariff analytics

Summary

Bespoke trade-flow analysis across 238 countries and 5,022 HS6 product lines, 30 years of BACI panel data, gravity models, and product-space diagnostics. Built for manufacturers, trade associations, PE portfolios, and policy teams who need defensible numbers in days, not quarters.

What we do

Trade and tariff analytics asks one question with many faces: when a tariff lands, or a flow shifts, or a corridor reroutes, who actually pays for it, and who captures the surplus on the other side. The work is panel data and structural models. BACI 30-year HS6 trade flows, WITS tariff schedules, gravity model specifications, and product-space adjacency. Pass-through estimation uses structural and reduced-form approaches: Section 301-style DiD on the 2018 to 2024 panel, hedonic decomposition for unit-value drivers, and Heckman selection for zero-flow pairs.

Outputs are built for operating committees and investment committees, not for academic seminars. Every claim traces to a primary public source, and every table is reproducible from the replication package shipped with the deliverable. The TradeWeave platform is the production engine; each engagement extends or specializes its standard work product to the client question.

Methods

• Difference-in-differences and staggered DiD
• Gravity-model forecasts with named scenario shocks
• Hedonic price decomposition with Heckman selection
• Product-space diagnostics (Hausmann-Hidalgo proximity)
• Revealed comparative advantage and economic complexity (RCA, ECI, PCI)
• Tariff pass-through estimation with structural and reduced-form models
• Supplier concentration and HHI analysis
• Sourcing substitution analysis under FTA constraints

Public data partners

• CEPII BACI 1995 to 2024 (V202601)
• UN Comtrade Plus and WITS tariff lines
• CEPII Gravity dataset
• USTR Section 301 List 1 to 4A
• USITC DataWeb
• Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA bilateral series
• FAOSTAT, IMF DOTS for cross-validation

Deliverables

• 12 to 24 page quantitative memo with methodology appendix
• Interactive dashboard for counterfactual exploration (D3.js or Deck.gl)
• Versioned, reproducible CSV or Parquet data drop
• One readout call plus two follow-up sessions
• Replication package with code and data

Sample engagements

• Section 301 tariff pass-through DiD across HS6 manufactures, 2018 to 2024.
• Gravity-model forecast of US apparel imports under three named tariff scenarios.
• Product-space diagnostic for a mid-income exporter targeting 80 adjacent HS6 lines.
• Hedonic decomposition of unit-value variation in Vietnamese wood exports.
• Quarterly trade brief subscription on the HS basket of an industry association.