TradeWeave

Summary

TradeWeave is the productized version of the analytical engine Deluair Consultancy uses for bespoke trade and tariff studies. It runs the full CEPII BACI panel from 1995 to 2024, covering 238 reporters and partners across 5,022 HS6 product lines, with gravity model specifications, product-space adjacency, revealed comparative advantage, economic complexity scores, and named-scenario tariff simulation built in. Manufacturers, trade associations, PE portfolios, and policy teams use it to answer concentration, exposure, and counterfactual questions in hours rather than weeks. Available as a per-seat subscription or as the substrate for bespoke engagements.

What it is

TradeWeave is the productionized trade intelligence engine that powers Deluair Consultancy's bespoke trade and tariff work. The same panel, the same gravity specifications, the same product-space and complexity calculations that sit behind a custom study are exposed through a structured workspace, so a procurement lead, a trade economist, or a portfolio manager can interrogate 30 years of bilateral flows without commissioning a new model each quarter. The data spine is the full CEPII BACI release (1995 to 2024), reconciled across HS revisions, joined to WITS tariff lines, USITC DataWeb HTSUS detail, USTR Section 301 lists, and the CEPII gravity covariates. Every number is traceable to a source row.

The analytical layer covers the workhorse questions of applied trade economics. Gravity model specifications (PPML with high-dimensional fixed effects, multilateral resistance, and standard CEPII covariates) generate counterfactual flows under named scenarios such as reshoring, decoupling, FTA accession, and tariff schedule changes. Product-space adjacency uses the Hausmann-Hidalgo proximity matrix to surface diversification and capability-adjacent opportunities. Revealed comparative advantage, the Economic Complexity Index, and the Product Complexity Index are computed on the full panel and benchmarked against country and product peers. The tariff scenario module ingests HTSUS or HS6 schedule changes, propagates them through bilateral flows, and reports pass-through, trade diversion, and supplier reconcentration with confidence bands. TradeWeave is delivered two ways: a per-seat subscription at $1,000 to $2,000 per month for teams that want continuous access, or as the underlying engine for bespoke study tier engagements where Deluair analysts run the platform on the client's specific question and deliver a written memo and dashboard.

Methodology

• Full CEPII BACI panel, 1995 to 2024, 238 reporters and partners, 5,022 HS6 product lines, reconciled across HS92, HS96, HS02, HS07, HS12, HS17, and HS22 revisions.
• Gravity model specifications using PPML with exporter-time, importer-time, and pair fixed effects, multilateral resistance terms, and standard CEPII covariates (distance, contiguity, common language, colonial history, RTA membership).
• Product-space construction from the Hausmann-Hidalgo proximity matrix, with adjacency scoring, density measures, and capability-adjacent opportunity ranking at the country-product level.
• Revealed comparative advantage (Balassa RCA), Economic Complexity Index, and Product Complexity Index computed on the full panel with reflections-method estimation and bootstrapped confidence bands.
• Tariff scenario engine that ingests HTSUS line items or HS6 schedule changes, applies them under named scenarios (reshoring, decoupling, Section 301 expansion, FTA accession), and reports trade diversion, pass-through, and supplier reconcentration.
• Concentration and exposure diagnostics: bilateral HHI, top-three-supplier share, partner-country sanction overlay, and chokepoint identification at the HS6 and HS4 levels.
• Named-scenario simulation framework with versioned scenario files, replicable parameter blocks, and side-by-side counterfactual comparison against a baseline of no policy change.
• Reproducibility layer: every figure, table, and counterfactual ships with the SQL query, the parameter block, and the BACI vintage that produced it.

Data sources

• CEPII BACI bilateral trade panel, 1995 to 2024 (V202401 and V202601 releases)
• UN Comtrade for cross-validation and recent-year extensions
• World Bank WITS for applied and MFN tariff lines at HS6
• USITC DataWeb for US HTSUS line-item detail
• USTR Section 301 and Section 232 tariff lists and exclusions
• CEPII gravity dataset (distance, contiguity, language, colonial ties, RTA membership)
• IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, BOP, and WEO for macro covariates
• WTO Regional Trade Agreements database and tariff download facility

Deliverables when used in engagements

• Per-seat workspace access with the full BACI panel, gravity engine, product-space, RCA and ECI, and the tariff scenario module.
• Named-scenario counterfactual reports with baseline, scenario, and delta tables at HS6, plus written interpretation.
• Concentration and exposure dashboards by HS chapter, partner country, and sanction regime, refreshed on each BACI release.
• Clean CSV and Parquet data drops of any query result, versioned to the underlying BACI vintage.
• Bespoke study tier: Deluair analysts run TradeWeave on a client-specific question and deliver a 12 to 20 page quantitative memo with methodology appendix.