Pemex 2026: a 1.5 mbpd national champion, a USD 99.5 billion debt stack, and Sheinbaum's energy sovereignty bet

The production trajectory: from 3.4 mbpd in 2004 to 1.50 mbpd in 2024 #

Pemex Exploration and Production reported total liquid hydrocarbon output of 1.50 million barrels per day in 2024 in the Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in April 2025, a 12 percent year on year decline from 1.71 mbpd in 2023 and a 56 percent reduction from the 3.38 mbpd peak recorded in 2004 when the Cantarell field alone produced 2.1 mbpd. Natural gas output of 3,776 million cubic feet per day in 2024 represented a 9 percent year on year contraction. The Comision Nacional de Hidrocarburos, in its January 2026 production statistics dashboard, attributes 38 percent of the 2024 decline to the natural depletion of Ku Maloob Zaap, the legacy heavy oil complex in the Bay of Campeche that has produced more than 7 billion barrels since 1979 and whose secondary nitrogen injection program has reached the limits of incremental recovery.

The collapse is structural, not cyclical. Cantarell ran at 130,000 barrels per day in 2024 against 2.1 mbpd in 2004. Ku Maloob Zaap fell from 845,000 barrels per day in 2013 to 580,000 in 2024. Quesqui, the only sizable greenfield brought on stream under Lopez Obrador, plateaued at 110,000 barrels per day in 2023 and entered decline in 2024. The CNH 2025 to 2030 outlook, published in February 2026, projects a band of 1.40 to 1.60 mbpd through 2028, contingent on the Trion deepwater development with TotalEnergies (40 percent operator) reaching first oil in late 2028 at a 100,000 barrels per day plateau.

The USD 99.5 billion debt stack and the 2025 to 2027 maturity wall #

Total Pemex financial debt stood at USD 99.5 billion at the close of Q4 2024 according to the consolidated balance sheet in the 20-F (note 17, debt and short term borrowings), composed of USD 87.6 billion of long term debt, USD 11.9 billion of current portion, and a separate USD 25 billion of trade payables to service providers that the Mexican Ministry of Finance (Secretaria de Hacienda y Credito Publico, SHCP) does not consolidate as financial debt but that international rating agencies treat as quasi debt. The maturity wall is concentrated: USD 11.7 billion in 2025, USD 9.0 billion in 2026, and USD 9.6 billion in 2027, totaling USD 30.3 billion in three years against an internal cash generation that, after capital expenditure of USD 9.5 billion and tax payments of USD 18.6 billion in 2024, leaves no organic capacity to amortize.

S and P Global Ratings affirmed Pemex at BBB stand alone with a CCC plus underlying credit profile in March 2025, five notches below the Mexican sovereign at BBB minus. Moody's Baa3, last reviewed in November 2024, carries a negative outlook and a B2 baseline credit assessment. Fitch's BB minus, three notches into speculative grade, was reaffirmed in February 2025. The triple ratings divergence is the largest sovereign to NOC credit gap among major hydrocarbon producers, wider than the Petrobras to Brazil spread (one notch) and inverted versus Saudi Aramco. The 2027 Pemex bond traded at a 295 basis point spread to United States Treasuries in February 2026, against 95 basis points for the comparable Mexican sovereign tenor.

Federal transfers, the 2023 Plan B reform, and the Sheinbaum fiscal regime #

Federal financial support to Pemex aggregated USD 25.4 billion in 2023 and an estimated USD 23.1 billion in 2024 per SHCP fiscal accounts, comprising direct capital injections, tax rebates on the Profit Sharing Duty (Derecho de Utilidad Compartida, DUC), and the assumption by the federal Treasury of selected debt amortizations. The November 2023 Plan B reform, ratified by Congress in December 2023, streamlined the architecture by authorizing SHCP to refinance Pemex maturities directly without separate annual congressional appropriation, reducing the discount on Pemex paper at the margin.

The Sheinbaum 2025 Federal Revenue Law, in force from January 1, 2025, cut the Profit Sharing Duty rate to 30 percent from the 40 percent that applied through 2024 and the 65 percent rate before the Pena Nieto reform of 2014. SHCP estimated the 2025 revenue loss at MXN 145 billion, roughly USD 7.2 billion at MXN 20 per dollar, partially offset by a higher Maya budget price (USD 57.80 against 2024's USD 67.50) and a 0.6 percent of GDP rise in the headline deficit to 3.9 percent. The IMF Article IV consultation concluded in November 2025 flagged the Pemex fiscal nexus as the principal medium term risk to Mexico's BBB minus sovereign rating, projecting a public sector borrowing requirement of 5.4 percent of GDP in 2025 inclusive of Pemex transfers, the highest level since 1990 outside of pandemic distortions.

Olmeca refinery, the six refinery system, and the zero net imports target #

The Olmeca refinery at Dos Bocas in Tabasco, ground broken in June 2019 and inaugurated by Lopez Obrador on July 1, 2022, is the centerpiece of the energy sovereignty agenda. Pemex publicly reported a final cost of USD 13.0 billion against an original budget of USD 8.0 billion, a 63 percent overrun, although the United States Energy Information Administration and Mexico's Federal Auditor (Auditoria Superior de la Federacion) have referenced cumulative cost figures above USD 16 billion when including financing, ancillary infrastructure, and post commissioning revisions. Nameplate capacity is 340,000 barrels per day of crude processing, designed for Maya heavy and Olmeca light blends. Through 2024, actual crude processing averaged 80,000 barrels per day, less than 24 percent of nameplate, on extended commissioning of the coker, hydrodesulfurization, and naphtha reforming units. CNH and Pemex Industrial Transformation projected a ramp to 280,000 barrels per day by mid 2026 in the November 2025 quarterly investor call.

The legacy six refinery system (Tula, Salina Cruz, Madero, Cadereyta, Salamanca, Minatitlan) processed 880,000 barrels per day in 2024 at 80 percent utilization on an aggregate nameplate of 1.10 million barrels per day, recovering from the 60 percent low of 2018. The recovery was driven by the Deer Park acquisition (the former Shell Deer Park refinery in Texas, bought by Pemex in January 2022 for USD 596 million) and a USD 4.0 billion rehabilitation program across the six domestic plants. Sheinbaum's National Energy Plan, presented on February 14, 2025, restated the goal of zero net imports of motor fuels by 2030, requiring roughly 1.45 million barrels per day of finished refined product output against 2024 actuals of 1.05 million barrels per day. The 400,000 barrels per day gap is structurally larger than what Olmeca alone can close, and the 2024 gasoline import bill of USD 24 billion remains the principal pressure point.

Private capital partnerships: TotalEnergies Trion, Eni Polok Chinwol, Vista Energy, Blackstone TG Pipelines #

Trion, the deepwater discovery in the Cinturon Plegado Perdido block in 2,500 meters of water near the United States maritime boundary, is the most consequential single project on the Mexican upstream calendar. TotalEnergies, operator with 40 percent, took final investment decision in July 2023 at a USD 7.4 billion development cost, partnered with Pemex Exploration and Production at 60 percent. First oil is targeted for late 2028 at a plateau of 100,000 barrels per day. Eni, with the Polok and Chinwol discoveries in shallow water Sureste Basin (Areas 1 and 7 of Round One), reached 27,000 barrels per day in early 2024 and is developing the Saasken field for first oil in 2026. Woodside Energy, the Australian operator, brought the Trion partner Trion Hokchi field to 16,000 barrels per day in 2024.

Vista Energy, the Buenos Aires and New York listed pure play, holds Mexican operating positions in the Aceite Terciario del Golfo region from the 2017 Pemex farm out and reported 2024 Mexican production of 9,500 barrels per day, with expansion contingent on tax stability. The Blackstone Pemex pipeline joint venture, TG Pipelines, formed in February 2025 around the USD 4.7 billion lease and operate transaction for selected onshore natural gas pipeline assets in Veracruz and Tabasco, is the single largest private capital injection into Pemex midstream in the post 2018 period. The transaction was structured as a 20 year usufruct with Pemex retaining ownership, a form that satisfies the constitutional Article 27 requirement that hydrocarbons remain state property while transferring operating cash flow rights to a private partner. Trafigura and Vitol remain the principal third party offtakers of Maya crude, with Trafigura confirming in its 2024 annual report a Maya lifting volume of 320,000 barrels per day.

2026 outlook: the Maya differential, the refining glut, and the sovereign rating #

Three macro variables determine whether the Sheinbaum Pemex strategy holds together through 2027. First, the Maya crude differential to West Texas Intermediate widened to USD 11.40 per barrel in March 2026 against a 2023 average of USD 7.20, reflecting the United States Gulf refining glut after ExxonMobil Beaumont (250,000 bpd, March 2023) and Canadian heavy flows via Trans Mountain Expansion (590,000 bpd, May 2024). Each USD 1 of differential widening costs Pemex roughly USD 230 million in annualized export revenue.

Second, the refining utilization race. If Olmeca ramps to the 280,000 barrels per day target by mid 2026 and the six legacy refineries hold 80 percent utilization, Pemex will reduce gasoline imports to roughly 320,000 barrels per day in 2027, a 20 percent reduction from 2024. The savings of order USD 5.5 billion per year materially relieve the federal transfer requirement. If Olmeca stalls below 200,000 barrels per day, the gasoline import bill stays above USD 22 billion and the federal subsidy remains structurally locked in. Third, the sovereign rating transmission. S and P retained the BBB minus stable Mexico sovereign rating in October 2025 conditional on a stable Pemex transfer trajectory. A loss of investment grade, even one notch to BB plus, would push Pemex bonds further into speculative territory and widen the spread to 450 plus basis points by Strategos modeling.

Strategos estimates a 60 percent probability that Pemex production stabilizes in the 1.45 to 1.55 mbpd band through 2028, a 25 percent probability of accelerated decline below 1.40 mbpd, and a 15 percent probability that Trion plus Vista expansion lifts production above 1.60 mbpd. The central fiscal scenario embeds federal transfers of USD 18 to 22 billion per year through 2027 and a cumulative refinancing requirement of USD 30 billion across 2025 to 2027, covered by SHCP backed exchange offers. The investor implication is straightforward. Long the Mexican sovereign to Pemex spread compression on a successful Olmeca ramp through 2027. Hedge tail risk on Pemex 2030 to 2035 paper through CDS at 280 basis points. The political economy of Pemex is entangled with the sovereign credit, and 2026 is the year in which the entanglement either cracks or holds.

Sources #

• Pemex Form 20-F filed with the United States SEC, fiscal year 2024
• Pemex Form 6-K, quarterly results filings 2024 and 2025
• Pemex investor relations, results center and bond prospectuses
• Comision Nacional de Hidrocarburos, production statistics dashboard
• Secretaria de Hacienda y Credito Publico, Federal Revenue Law 2025
• IMF Article IV consultation with Mexico, November 2025 staff report
• Banco de Mexico, balance of payments and external accounts
• S and P Global Ratings, Pemex and Mexico sovereign rating actions
• Moody's Investors Service, Pemex credit opinion November 2024
• Fitch Ratings, Petroleos Mexicanos rating action commentary
• IEA Oil Market Report, 2024 and 2025 monthly editions
• OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Mexico country data
• TotalEnergies, Trion final investment decision announcement July 2023
• Eni, Areas 1 and 7 Mexico shallow water development updates
• Vista Energy, full year 2024 results and operations report
• United States Energy Information Administration, Mexico country analysis
• Auditoria Superior de la Federacion, Olmeca refinery audit reports