Energy and transition economics 2026-04-26 11 minute read

JETP at the inflection: Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, Senegal through 2026

Four Just Energy Transition Partnerships now total roughly USD 46.7 billion in announced public and private commitments. The South Africa JET-IP needs USD 98 billion, Indonesia's CIPP needs USD 97.3 billion, and the US tranche has been frozen since the Trump withdrawal from Paris in January 2025. The IPG arithmetic for COP30 has shifted.

The Just Energy Transition Partnerships announced between November 2021 (South Africa, COP26) and June 2023 (Senegal, Paris Summit for a New Global Financing Pact) cumulatively pledged about USD 46.7 billion in concessional public and mobilized private capital across South Africa (USD 8.5 billion initial, raised to USD 13.8 billion at COP28), Indonesia (USD 21.6 billion), Vietnam (USD 15.5 billion), and Senegal (EUR 2.5 billion, roughly USD 2.7 billion). Implementation has lagged the rhetoric. South Africa had mobilized USD 12.8 billion of pledged capital by November 2024 per the JET-IP second annual report, mostly as policy loans rather than grant. Indonesia's CIPP, launched November 2023 and updated November 2024, sets a PLN on grid coal capacity peak of 35.7 GW by 2030 against a 41.6 GW business as usual baseline, and lifts headline financing need to USD 97.3 billion. Vietnam's RMP, published December 2023, identifies 410 priority projects against USD 134 billion of medium term need. Trump's January 20, 2025 executive order to withdraw from the Paris Agreement froze the US tranches across all four partnerships, leaving the EU, Germany, France, the UK, and Japan to recompose the IPG without Washington. China's overseas coal moratorium of September 2021 has held, but Chinese gas, hydropower, and nuclear lending now competes directly with the JETP envelope.

The four partnerships: USD 46.7 billion announced, IPG composition by country #

The South Africa partnership was announced on November 2, 2021 at COP26 by the leaders of the United Kingdom, United States, France, Germany, and the European Union, with an initial pledge of USD 8.5 billion. At COP28 in December 2023 the IPG was widened to include the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Switzerland, and Canada, and the headline figure rose to USD 13.8 billion in concessional finance, technical assistance, and guarantees. The Indonesia partnership, announced at the G20 Bali summit on November 15, 2022, structured a USD 20 billion envelope split equally between the IPG and the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, GFANZ, with figures revised upward to USD 21.6 billion in the November 2023 CIPP. The Vietnam partnership, agreed at the EU ASEAN summit on December 14, 2022, mirrored the Indonesia 50 50 split at USD 15.5 billion. Senegal's partnership, launched at the Paris Summit for a New Global Financing Pact on June 22, 2023, set a EUR 2.5 billion envelope from a smaller IPG of France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and Canada.

The composition reveals a structural feature of the JETP architecture: France, Germany, the EU, and the UK appear in every partnership, the US in three of four, Japan in two of the largest two by financing volume, and Italy, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Switzerland join selectively. Outside the formal IPG, the United Kingdom announced GBP 7.6 billion in climate finance for India's energy transition at COP26, and a Cambodia coal early retirement and clean energy pilot under ADB Energy Transition Mechanism design has drawn pre IPG concessional pledges of around USD 600 million from the United Kingdom, Japan, and the Climate Investment Funds. Together the announced JETP and adjacent envelopes total roughly USD 46.7 billion in nominal terms, against a combined plan need of about USD 213 billion across South Africa, Indonesia, and Vietnam alone.

Country	Announcement	Headline pledge (USD bn)	IPG and partner composition	Plan document and date
South Africa	Nov 2021, COP26 Glasgow	8.5 initial, 13.8 at COP28	UK, US, France, Germany, EU, plus Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Switzerland, Canada from Dec 2023	JET-IP, Nov 2022, updated Nov 2023
Indonesia	Nov 2022, G20 Bali	21.6 (10.0 IPG, 11.6 GFANZ)	US and Japan co lead, plus UK, Germany, France, EU, Italy, Canada, Norway, Denmark	CIPP, Nov 2023, updated Nov 2024
Vietnam	Dec 2022, EU summit	15.5 (7.75 IPG, 7.75 GFANZ)	EU and UK co lead, plus US, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Denmark, Japan, Norway	RMP, Dec 2023
Senegal	Jun 2023, Paris Summit	2.7 (EUR 2.5 bn)	France and Germany co lead, plus EU, UK, Canada	Investment plan in preparation, late 2025
Total		48.5 to 53.6 nominal	All IPG members in at least one partnership: France, Germany, EU, UK, US, Italy, Japan, Canada, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, Spain

JETP commitments and IPG composition by country, 2021 to 2023

South Africa JET-IP: USD 12.8 billion mobilized, Eskom and the Mpumalanga coal exit #

The South African JET Investment Plan, launched at COP27 on November 7, 2022 and budgeted at ZAR 1.5 trillion or roughly USD 98 billion across 2023 to 2027, identifies three sectors as priorities: electricity (ZAR 1.03 trillion), new energy vehicles (ZAR 128 billion), and green hydrogen (ZAR 319 billion). The second JET-IP annual report, published in November 2024 by the Presidential Climate Commission, records USD 12.8 billion of mobilized capital, of which USD 11.6 billion is sovereign concessional debt and USD 1.2 billion is grant. The mobilized number is up from USD 8.5 billion announced one year earlier, but the grant share, at 9.4 percent, falls short of the ZAR 1.5 trillion plan assumption that grants and guarantees together would supply at least 13 percent of the envelope.

Eskom's Mpumalanga coal fleet, totaling 39 GW or about 80 percent of South African installed capacity, is the operational core of the transition. Komati, decommissioned September 2022, was the first 1,000 MW unit retired under JETP guidance. Hendrina (2,000 MW) and Camden (1,561 MW) are scheduled for closure between 2027 and 2030, and the remaining six stations are pencilled for retirement between 2030 and 2050 in the Integrated Resource Plan 2023 and the JET-IP. The Climate Investment Funds Accelerating Coal Transition program, ACT, allocated USD 500 million to South Africa in 2022, leveraged by USD 2 billion in MDB co financing through the World Bank and African Development Bank. The April 2024 World Bank Just Energy Transition Investment Project Loan added USD 1 billion at IBRD reference rates, and the AFD policy loan signed October 2023 contributed EUR 300 million. The Treasury Eskom Debt Relief Act of 2023, providing ZAR 254 billion of conditional debt takeover, is the domestic anchor: it ties relief disbursement to coal decommissioning milestones and to the unbundling of Eskom into generation, transmission, and distribution entities.

Indonesia CIPP: PLN coal peak at 35.7 GW by 2030, captive coal carve out, USD 97.3 billion need #

Indonesia's Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan, the CIPP, was launched on November 21, 2023 by the JETP Secretariat in Jakarta and updated on November 18, 2024. The November 2024 update sets the on grid PLN coal capacity peak at 35.7 GW in 2030 against a 41.6 GW business as usual baseline, retiring 1.7 GW by 2030, with a PLN system net zero target of 2050. Power sector emissions are to peak at 250 million tonnes CO2 in 2030 against the original 290 million tonne ceiling, a 14 percent revision driven by the inclusion of more aggressive renewable build out scenarios. Renewable share of generation rises to 44 percent by 2030 in the policy case, against 12 percent in 2022 per IEA Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022. The plan now lifts headline financing need to USD 97.3 billion across 2023 to 2030, up from USD 67.4 billion in the November 2023 baseline.

Captive coal, the 13.7 GW of off grid coal serving nickel and aluminum smelters in Sulawesi, Halmahera, and Kalimantan, is the most contested issue in the CIPP. Captive coal sits outside the November 2024 PLN cap and continues to grow: the IPG and Indonesia agreed a captive coal aspirational cap of 13.7 GW in November 2024, but smelter operators in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park and Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park have outstanding permits for an additional 7 to 10 GW. The CIPP also separates conditional from unconditional commitments: USD 11.0 billion of the IPG envelope is conditional on policy reform, including PLN single buyer reform, feed in tariff revision under MEMR Regulation 112 of 2022, and grid code modernization. The ADB Energy Transition Mechanism Cirebon 1 deal of December 2023, the first commercial coal early retirement transaction worldwide, retires the 660 MW Cirebon 1 plant by December 2035, seven years before its 2042 PPA end, on a USD 250 to 300 million blended finance package combining ADB, AFD, and Japan Bank for International Cooperation tranches.

Vietnam RMP: 410 projects, offshore wind delays, and Power Development Plan VIII #

Vietnam's Resource Mobilisation Plan, the RMP, was launched on December 1, 2023 at COP28. It identifies 410 priority projects across power generation, grid, energy efficiency, and electric mobility, with a total medium term financing need of USD 134 billion against the USD 15.5 billion JETP envelope. The RMP aligns to Power Development Plan VIII, approved in May 2023, which targets a 70.7 to 71.5 GW renewable capacity build by 2030, including 6 GW of offshore wind. By the December 2024 RMP review, only USD 321 million of the USD 7.75 billion IPG tranche had reached final agreement at the project level, and zero offshore wind projects had taken final investment decision under the JETP envelope. The Vietnam Electricity, EVN, single buyer reform and the direct power purchase agreement decree, signed July 2024, are the unblocking instruments, but tariff and FX risk allocation remain unresolved.

The Vietnam case illustrates the structural mismatch between JETP commitments and disbursement velocity. Concessional debt at IBRD plus 50 to 100 basis points carries currency mismatch risk for VND revenue projects, and the Vietnam sovereign guarantee cap, at USD 1.5 billion across all foreign currency debt per the 2017 Public Debt Management Law, constrains the envelope absorbable without on lending vehicles. The first commercial JETP transaction in Vietnam, an EIB EUR 500 million policy loan signed October 2024, supports grid reinforcement in the central provinces but does not retire any coal capacity. Vietnam's coal fleet, 28.5 GW operating in 2024, is scheduled to peak at 30.0 GW in 2030 in PDP VIII before declining. No coal early retirement contract has been signed under Vietnam JETP as of April 2026.

Senegal JETP: EUR 2.5 billion, Yakaar Teranga gas dilemma, AFD as IPG anchor #

Senegal's JETP, announced at the Paris Summit on June 22, 2023, sets a EUR 2.5 billion envelope to lift the renewable share of installed capacity to 40 percent by 2030 from 31 percent in 2023, per the Senegalese Ministry of Petroleum and Energies. The IPG composition, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and Canada, places Agence Francaise de Developpement, AFD, as the financial anchor: the AFD October 2024 board approved EUR 670 million for the first Senegal JETP tranche, conditional on Senelec tariff reform and on the formal investment plan due in late 2025. KfW Germany has earmarked EUR 480 million across grid and solar PV, and the European Investment Bank EUR 400 million for the Yeumbeul and Tobene line reinforcements. The remaining EUR 950 million is committed in principle but not yet allocated to instrument or project.

The Senegal partnership is shaped by the December 2024 first cargo from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project shared with Mauritania, and by the contested Yakaar Teranga gas to power project. The Faye Sonko government, sworn in April 2024, has signaled a renegotiation of upstream contracts with BP, Kosmos, and Petrosen and has paused FID on Yakaar Teranga pending revenue terms. The IPG position on gas remains unresolved: Germany and France have indicated openness to gas to power as a bridging fuel under the EU taxonomy transitional gas envelope, while the UK and Canada have signaled stricter alignment with Glasgow Climate Pact phase down language. The Senegal investment plan, originally due COP29 in Baku in November 2024, slipped to a target of COP30 in Belem in November 2025 and is now expected in early 2026.

The 2025 reset: Trump withdrawal, China BRI competition, COP30 reconfiguration #

The Trump executive order of January 20, 2025 to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement and to rescind US international climate finance pledges has frozen the US tranches across all four JETPs, including the USD 1.0 billion US contribution to South Africa under the COP28 expanded envelope and the USD 2.0 billion US contribution to Indonesia. The IPG response, formalized at the COP30 preparatory meeting in Bonn in June 2025, has been to substitute through KfW, the European Investment Bank, AFD, and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, leaving the headline pledges intact in announced terms but reweighting the disbursement profile toward European and Japanese balance sheets. The GFANZ Net Zero Banking Alliance flexibility decision of April 2025, which softens the 1.5 degree alignment threshold for member banks, has weakened the credibility of the GFANZ tranches, particularly the USD 11.6 billion Indonesia GFANZ commitment from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Standard Chartered, HSBC, MUFG, Macquarie, and Deutsche Bank.

The Chinese counter offer is now visible in real flows. The Belt and Road overseas coal moratorium, in force since the September 2021 UN General Assembly speech, has held: no new Chinese financed coal plant has reached financial close in Indonesia or Vietnam since 2022. China Development Bank and the Export Import Bank of China have pivoted to gas combined cycle, hydropower, and nuclear. Indonesia's December 2024 memorandum with Russia on small modular reactors and the Vietnam decision in October 2024 to revive the Ninh Thuan nuclear program are partly driven by Chinese and Russian financing offers outside JETP conditionality. The Brazilian COP30 presidency in November 2025 has signaled a new partnership architecture, the Tropical Forests Forever Fund and a Belem package linking JETP follow on financing to deforestation finance, with India, Pakistan, and Cambodia in early stage IPG conversations. Through 2026, the binding constraint is execution: only about USD 18.6 billion of the announced USD 46.7 billion JETP envelope has reached project level legal close as of April 2026, and the credibility of the architecture rests on translating that ratio into something closer to 50 percent before the New York Climate Week of September 2026.

Risk vector	Event and date	Impact on JETP envelope	Mitigant pathway
US withdrawal	Trump executive order, Jan 20, 2025	USD 1.0 bn US tranche South Africa, USD 2.0 bn US tranche Indonesia frozen	EU and Japan top up, EBRD and KfW substitution
GFANZ contraction	Net Zero Banking Alliance flexibility decision, Apr 2025	Mobilization assumptions for Indonesia and Vietnam GFANZ tranches downgraded	Sovereign green bonds, MDB hybrid capital
China BRI competition	Belt and Road overseas coal moratorium since Sept 2021, gas and nuclear pivot	Indonesia and Vietnam gas and nuclear lending available outside JETP conditionality	Tighten CIPP and RMP project gating, no parallel financing
MDB capital adequacy	G20 Capital Adequacy Framework recommendations 2024 implementation	World Bank and ADB capacity to leverage JETP envelope rises by 30 to 40 percent	Hybrid capital, callable capital monetization
EM sovereign spreads	South Africa 10 year USD bond at 7.5 percent April 2026, Indonesia at 5.4 percent	Crowding out of JETP private mobilization at concessional pricing	First loss layers, MIGA guarantees, concessional blending
COP30 Belem	November 2025 follow on	Senegal investment plan due, India and Cambodia partnerships under negotiation	Brazil presidency push for finance package linkage

JETP risk vectors and mitigants, 2025 reset

Sources #

Cite this brief

@misc{hossen2026jetpenergytransition2026,
  author = {Hossen, Md Deluair},
  title  = {JETP at the inflection: Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, Senegal through 2026},
  year   = {2026},
  url    = {https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/jetp-energy-transition-2026},
  note   = {Deluair Consultancy briefs}
}

Hossen, M. D. (2026). JETP at the inflection: Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, Senegal through 2026. Deluair Consultancy briefs. https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/jetp-energy-transition-2026

Hossen, Md Deluair. "JETP at the inflection: Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, Senegal through 2026." Deluair Consultancy briefs, 2026-04-26. https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/jetp-energy-transition-2026.

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