Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Myanmar 2026: A Fractured State, a Collapsing Kyat, and the Economics of Lost Territory
Five years after the coup, the Tatmadaw has ceded most border regions to the Three Brotherhood Alliance and PDFs, the kyat has lost two thirds of its parallel-market value, and the economy runs on garments, jade, and gold across borders the junta no longer holds.
The 1 February 2021 State Administration Council coup triggered the deepest contraction in Myanmar's post-independence history, with real GDP falling roughly 18 percent in 2021 (World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2022). The Operation 1027 offensive launched on 27 October 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance broke the territorial ...
Yemen and Sudan in 2026: Two War Economies, One Red Sea Risk Pool
Sudan's RSF gold corridor and Yemen's Houthi shipping interdiction have fused into a single Red Sea risk perimeter that humanitarian financing alone cannot stabilize.
Sudan and Yemen now anchor the world's largest concentrated humanitarian caseload, with roughly 30 million Sudanese and 19 million Yemenis classified as in need by UN OCHA at the start of 2026. Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known a...