Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Pakistan 2026: The Sharif Coalition, the Military, and the Political Economy of Stabilization
The PML-N led coalition has bought macro calm through an IMF anchor, a curated judiciary, and a deepening security partnership with the army, but the political ledger underneath the fiscal one is the binding constraint on the next phase of adjustment.
Pakistan's stabilization in 2026 is a political artifact as much as a macro outcome. The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz government under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in coalition with the Pakistan Peoples Party and supported by an army leadership whose Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir received a statutory five year extension, has carried th...
Peru Mining Under Boluarte: Political Risk Through the 2026 Election Cycle
President Dina Boluarte enters her last full year of office with single digit approval, a fragmented Congress, and a copper sector that the state cannot afford to disturb. The April 2026 first round and June 2026 runoff will reset the rules under which Las Bambas, Quellaveco, and the Tia Maria pipeline operate.
Peru is the world's second largest copper producer at roughly 2.6 million tonnes per year, and its political settlement is the variable that decides whether the next administration can hold the line. President Dina Boluarte governs with approval near 5 percent, a Congress that has rejected three constitutional vacancia motions, and a memo...
South Korea 2026: After Martial Law, the Korea Discount Re-rated
Yoon Suk-yeol's six-hour martial law on December 3, 2024 broke a presidency, repriced the won, and handed the Lee Jae-myung Democratic Party a working mandate that now has to fix chaebol governance, household debt, and a pension system the country keeps deferring.
On December 3, 2024 President Yoon Suk-yeol invoked Article 77 of the Constitution and declared martial law for the first time since 1980. The National Assembly nullified the decree by Resolution 190-0 within hours, the Assembly impeached Yoon 415 to 0 on December 14, and the Constitutional Court removed him by a 6 to 3 ruling on April 4,...
Vietnam's 14th Party Congress: To Lam, Bamboo Diplomacy, and the Pricing of Political Continuity
The January 2027 14th National Congress will ratify a leadership transition already executed under fire. Investors should price To Lam's consolidation, the Blazing Furnace's reach into the Politburo, and a 22 to 17 ministry restructuring as one integrated macro signal.
Nguyen Phu Trong's death on 19 July 2024 ended the longest General Secretaryship since reunification and triggered the most compressed succession in Vietnamese Communist Party history. By 3 August 2024 To Lam, the Minister of Public Security who had run the Blazing Furnace anti-corruption campaign, held the General Secretaryship outright....