Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Egypt and Eastern Mediterranean Gas: From Exporter to Importer
Zohr's decline, Israel's pipeline lifeline, and idle Idku and Damietta trains have flipped Egypt from regional aggregator to FSRU-dependent importer. The 2026 question is whether Cairo can stabilize before another summer of load shedding.
Egypt's gas system has reversed in three years. Zohr, the field that lifted Egypt to net exporter status in 2018, has fallen from a 2019 peak of roughly 75 bcm per year to about 50 bcm in 2025 as reservoir pressure declined faster than Eni and EGAS modeled. Idku and Damietta LNG trains, which lifted 8 to 9 bcm of LNG per year through 2022...
Russia and China Gas in 2026: Power of Siberia 1 Ramps, Power of Siberia 2 Stalls, and the New Eastern Pricing Reality
Power of Siberia 1 is approaching contractual capacity, Power of Siberia 2 is hostage to a Gazprom and CNPC pricing impasse, and the loss of European volumes has shifted Moscow into a structurally weaker eastern bargain.
Russian pipeline gas to China is on track to fill the 38 bcm Power of Siberia 1 contract through 2026, with 2024 deliveries near 31 bcm and 2025 estimates approaching design capacity. The proposed 50 bcm Power of Siberia 2 line via Mongolia is stalled at FID by a pricing standoff with CNPC, Mongolian transit terms, and Beijing's preferenc...
Texas, ERCOT, and the AI Siting Reset
Senate Bill 6, the ERCOT large-load study, and a 30 to 40 GW interconnection queue are forcing hyperscalers to rethink West Texas, behind-the-meter gas, and the price of speed.
Texas became the default home for marginal United States AI compute through 2024 and 2025 because ERCOT offered the only grid in North America that could absorb gigawatt-scale loads on a multi-year horizon rather than a multi-decade one. That window is closing on its own terms. The ERCOT December 2025 long-term load forecast now carries r...