Seabed Mining and the International Seabed Authority 2026: Stalled Code, Bypass Politics, and the Pacific Pivot: Deluair Consultancy

Deep sea mining sits at an unusual hinge in 2026. The International Seabed Authority has run a regulatory process for more than 30 years without finalizing exploitation rules, the July 2023 Nauru 2 year trigger has lapsed without a Mining Code, and the July 2025 Council session in Kingston again failed to close the text. The United States moved outside the ISA in April 2025 by reactivating the 1980 Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act through a presidential executive order and a NOAA permitting track. Norway's Storting opened 281,000 square kilometers of continental shelf in January 2024 then paused the first license round in December 2024 for at least one year. Cook Islands and Kiribati are running parallel domestic licensing inside their exclusive economic zones. Thirty plus states, including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Canada, Brazil, Chile and a Pacific Forum bloc of eight, support a moratorium or precautionary pause. Original equipment manufacturer customers are split: Stellantis, BMW, Volvo, Volkswagen and Google have signed the World Wildlife Fund moratorium pledge, while Samsung SDI and several US battery integrators have not. This brief maps the legal architecture, the live contracts, the cost stack against land based nickel and cobalt, and the path dependencies that procurement and policy teams need to price.

The ISA legal architecture and a 30 year code that did not close #

The International Seabed Authority was established under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which entered into force on 16 November 1994. The ISA has 169 members plus the European Union, sits in Kingston, Jamaica, and operates through a 36 member Council, an Assembly, a Legal and Technical Commission, and a Finance Committee. Its remit covers the Area, defined as the seabed beyond national jurisdiction, whose mineral resources UNCLOS Article 136 declares the common heritage of mankind.

Exploration regulations exist for three resource types: polymetallic nodules adopted 2000, polymetallic sulfides 2010, and cobalt rich ferromanganese crusts 2012. The exploitation Mining Code has been negotiated since 2014 and remains unfinalized through the March and July 2025 Council sessions. The July 2025 session, second part of the 30th session, again did not adopt the text and extended the road map into 2026 with a target of finalizing in the 31st session. Unresolved items include the financial payment regime, environmental thresholds for plumes and noise, inspection and compliance machinery, regional environmental management plans beyond the CCZ, and underwater cultural heritage.

On 9 July 2021, Nauru, sponsoring state for Nauru Ocean Resources Inc., a subsidiary of The Metals Company, invoked Section 1 paragraph 15 of the 1994 Implementation Agreement. That clause requires the Council to complete rules within 2 years or otherwise consider and provisionally approve a plan of work under the existing framework. The window expired on 9 July 2023 with no Code in place. Council adopted a 2023 understanding that no exploitation contract would be approved before finalization, but the legal ambiguity remains the live policy variable.

Thirty one exploration contracts, three ocean basins, eight sponsor states #

As of April 2026, ISA records show 31 active exploration contracts. Nineteen target polymetallic nodules, mainly in the Clarion Clipperton Zone of the central Pacific between Hawaii and Mexico, with a few in the Central Indian Ocean Basin and Cook Islands Reserved Area. Seven cover polymetallic sulfides on mid ocean ridge systems including the Mid Atlantic Ridge, Central Indian Ridge and Southwest Indian Ridge. Five cover cobalt rich ferromanganese crusts on Western Pacific and South Atlantic seamounts. Contracts run 15 years with extension provisions and a default 75,000 square kilometer nodule block, half relinquished after 8 years.

Sponsor state distribution is concentrated. China, through COMRA, China Minmetals and Beijing Pioneer Hi Tech, holds the largest combined acreage. Russia holds three. Pacific small island developing states sponsor several nodule contracts: Nauru sponsors NORI and Tonga Offshore Mining Limited, both linked to The Metals Company; Kiribati sponsors Marawa; the Cook Islands hold reserved blocks. Korea, India, Japan, France, Germany, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Poland and the Interoceanmetal Joint Organization sponsor the rest. The 2011 Seabed Disputes Chamber advisory opinion confirmed sponsoring states must exercise due diligence but are not strictly liable for damage if they meet that standard.

The Clarion Clipperton Zone hosts most economically interesting nodule acreage. Nodule abundance ranges 10 to 15 kilograms per square meter wet weight on prospective blocks, with reported grades around nickel 1.4 percent, copper 1.1 percent, cobalt 0.2 percent and manganese 28 percent on a dry basis. These figures sit inside ranges in ISA Council document ISBA 27 LTC 11 and in The Metals Company NORI D feasibility filings with the SEC.

Sponsor state	Contracts	Resource type focus	Notable contractor
China	5	Nodules, sulfides, crusts	COMRA
Russia	3	Nodules, sulfides	Yuzhmorgeologiya
Korea	3	Nodules, sulfides, crusts	KIOST
Japan	2	Nodules, crusts	DORD, JOGMEC
India	2	Nodules, sulfides	Ministry of Earth Sciences
Nauru and Tonga	2	Nodules	NORI, TOML
France, Germany, Belgium, UK, Poland	5	Nodules, sulfides	Ifremer, BGR, GSR, UKSR, IOM
Cook Islands and Kiribati	2	Nodules	Marawa, CIIC reserved

Selected ISA exploration contract distribution by sponsor state, April 2026, drawn from the ISA contractor register

The Metals Company, Allseas, and the path to a first commercial application #

The Metals Company, listed on Nasdaq as TMC, is the most advanced commercial actor pushing for a first nodule exploitation permit. Its NORI D area sits in the CCZ under Nauru sponsorship. In Q4 2022, the Allseas Hidden Gem riser vessel completed the first integrated pilot nodule collection test in the CCZ, lifting roughly 3,000 tonnes across two campaigns per TMC disclosures. The Hidden Gem is a former Samsung built drillship reconfigured as an FPSO style platform with a vertical riser and seafloor collector vehicle.

On 27 March 2025, TMC announced it would pursue a commercial recovery permit and exploration license under the 1980 US Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act through its subsidiary TMC USA Inc. That bypass was reinforced by the 24 April 2025 Trump executive order on Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, which directed NOAA to expedite seabed mineral permits in areas beyond national jurisdiction. NOAA opened a public comment period on the TMC USA application in mid 2025 and continued environmental review into 2026.

TMC's economics depend on three contested numbers. The realized nickel equivalent grade after metallurgical losses is modeled at 2.0 to 2.4 percent once Cu, Co and Mn byproduct credits are netted. Operating cost is modeled at 5,000 to 7,000 US dollars per tonne nickel equivalent, below current Indonesian and Philippine HPAL. Capex per annual tonne of capacity is modeled at 30,000 to 45,000 US dollars across a 25 year resource life. Independent analysts at the MIT Mineral Resources Program and the Hamburg Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies publish overlapping ranges with higher environmental and insurance premia.

Norway, Cook Islands, Kiribati, and the inside national jurisdiction track #

Norway is the most ambitious continental shelf actor. On 9 January 2024, the Storting voted to open roughly 281,000 square kilometers between Jan Mayen and Svalbard, targeting sulfides on the Mohns Knipovich and Kolbeinsey Ridges and crusts on Vesteris Banken. Sodir, the combined petroleum and minerals directorate, prepared the first licensing round. On 1 December 2024, the Store minority Labour government accepted a Socialist Left Party budget demand to delay the round by at least one year, pushing the realistic award into late 2026 or 2027. Pre license campaigns by Loke Marine Minerals, Green Minerals and Adepth continue under Sodir.

Cook Islands is the most institutionally developed Pacific actor. Its Seabed Minerals Authority, under the 2019 Seabed Minerals Act, awarded three exploration licenses in 2022 to CIIC Seabed Resources, Moana Minerals and Cook Islands Cobalt Ltd, all inside the EEZ where ISA rules do not apply. Licenses cover roughly 70,000 to 75,000 square kilometers, with abundance higher than the CCZ but lower combined Ni plus Cu plus Co grades and higher cobalt. Kiribati runs domestic licensing under its 2017 Act and sponsors Marawa under ISA arrangements.

Papua New Guinea is the cautionary case. Solwara 1 in the Bismarck Sea was permitted in 2011, advanced by Nautilus Minerals through a partial subsea production system, and collapsed financially in 2019 with roughly 120 million US dollars of PNG state co investment lost. PNG renewed its moratorium and joined Pacific Islands Forum members supporting precaution. Domestic licensing without anchor offtake and tested processing creates large fiscal exposure for small island treasuries.

Cost stack and the comparison with land based nickel and cobalt #

The strategic case for nodule mining rests on a head to head with two land based chains. For nickel, marginal supply through 2030 comes from Indonesian and Philippine laterite processed through HPAL plants such as PT Halmahera Persada Lygend, PT Huayue Nickel Cobalt and PT QMB New Energy Materials, almost all built with Chinese capital and integrated into Chinese cathode supply. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024 and 2025 and the IEA Critical Minerals Outlook show Indonesian mine production at roughly 2.2 million tonnes of contained nickel in 2024, over half of global output. For cobalt, the marginal source is the DRC Copperbelt, where roughly 70 percent of global mined cobalt originates, with governance and artisanal concerns documented by Amnesty International, OECD Due Diligence Guidance and Cobalt Institute reports.

Nodule projects compete on three margins. On unit cost, the Allseas riser collector paired with onshore matte production targets the same 5,000 to 8,000 US dollars per tonne nickel equivalent range as competitive HPAL. On environmental footprint, nodule recovery avoids tropical deforestation and tailings dams but introduces benthic destruction, sediment plumes extending hundreds of kilometers, and acoustic impacts, still being quantified by DISCOL revisit, MiningImpact 2 and JPI Oceans. On governance, the ISA offers a single multilateral interface while the US bypass reintroduces Cold War style fragmentation. Nodule volumes if they materialize would arrive 2028 to 2032 and substitute marginal Indonesian and Philippine HPAL and DRC artisanal cobalt, not core Western primary nickel.

Metric	CCZ nodule (modeled)	Indonesian laterite HPAL	DRC cobalt copper
Average ore grade	Ni 1.4 percent dry	Ni 1.0 to 1.6 percent	Co 0.3 to 0.7 percent
Byproduct credits	Cu 1.1, Co 0.2, Mn 28 percent	Co 0.05 to 0.15 percent	Cu 2 to 3 percent
Operating cost per tonne Ni equiv	5,000 to 7,000 USD	6,000 to 9,000 USD	Co at 25,000 to 35,000 USD
Capex per annual tonne capacity	30,000 to 45,000 USD	40,000 to 70,000 USD	Variable, brownfield led
Lead time to first metal	4 to 6 years post permit	3 to 5 years	1 to 3 years brownfield
Primary externality cited	Benthic habitat, plumes	Deforestation, tailings	Artisanal labor, governance

Indicative cost and grade comparison drawn from USGS, IEA, ISA contractor disclosures and TMC SEC filings

Moratorium coalition, customer pull, and the 2026 to 2030 decision tree #

The moratorium coalition has hardened. As of the July 2025 ISA Assembly, more than 30 states publicly supported a moratorium, precautionary pause, or ban, including France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Sweden, Finland, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Austria, Costa Rica, Panama, Mexico, Chile, Brazil, Canada, Ecuador, New Zealand, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, Palau, Tuvalu, FSM, Solomon Islands and Tonga. The Pacific Islands Forum 2024 Suva and 2025 Nuku'alofa communiques flagged precaution across an eight country bloc led by Palau, Fiji and Samoa. The European Parliament reaffirmed its moratorium call ahead of the third UN Ocean Conference in Nice in June 2025.

Customer pull is mixed but trending cautious. The WWF Deep Sea Mining Moratorium Pledge has been signed by Stellantis, BMW, Volkswagen, Volvo Group, Volvo Cars, Renault, Rivian, Patagonia, Philips, Google, Samsung Electronics and Triodos Bank, committing signatories to exclude deep seabed minerals until rigorous assessment and effective protection are in place. Apple updated its supplier standard to exclude these minerals. US battery integrators and defense primes have engaged TMC under DSHMRA, given the US is not a UNCLOS party.

Financial signals are clearest. The Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global, with assets above 1.7 trillion US dollars at end 2024, has not added a separate deep sea mining exclusion, but the Council on Ethics has flagged the issue and Storebrand and KLP have committed not to invest without scientific consensus. TMC stock ranged from below 1 US dollar in 2023 to above 6 in 2025 on executive order news, settling 3 to 5 through Q1 2026. Lloyd's and major reinsurers signal very high environmental premia for commercial nodule operations, a material financing constraint.

The decision tree reduces to three branches. Branch one, ISA finalizes the Mining Code in 2026 or 2027 with conservative environmental thresholds, probability roughly 35 percent, first commercial production 2029 to 2031 at 50 to 150 thousand tonnes nickel equivalent annually by 2032. Branch two, ISA stays stalled while DSHMRA delivers a TMC permit and Norway awards in 2027, probability 30 percent, smaller US flagged output and a US versus rest of world legal split. Branch three, moratorium expands and the EU Battery Regulation hardens pledges into binding rules, probability 35 percent, nodule production stays sub commercial through 2030. Across all branches the imperative is the same: stress test critical minerals plans for late, partial or jurisdictionally split seabed supply, and pre commit governance positions before contracts are written.

Sources #

Cite this brief

@misc{hossen2026seabedminingisa2026,
  author = {Hossen, Md Deluair},
  title  = {Seabed Mining and the International Seabed Authority 2026: Stalled Code, Bypass Politics, and the Pacific Pivot},
  year   = {2026},
  url    = {https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/seabed-mining-isa-2026},
  note   = {Deluair Consultancy briefs}
}

Hossen, M. D. (2026). Seabed Mining and the International Seabed Authority 2026: Stalled Code, Bypass Politics, and the Pacific Pivot. Deluair Consultancy briefs. https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/seabed-mining-isa-2026

Hossen, Md Deluair. "Seabed Mining and the International Seabed Authority 2026: Stalled Code, Bypass Politics, and the Pacific Pivot." Deluair Consultancy briefs, 2026-04-26. https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/seabed-mining-isa-2026.

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Seabed Mining and the International Seabed Authority 2026: Stalled Code, Bypass Politics, and the Pacific Pivot