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Trade and tariff analytics

Tariff impact calculator.

Partial-equilibrium illustration of how a tariff propagates from landed cost to retail price, quantity demanded, importer margin, consumer welfare, government revenue, and deadweight loss. All math runs in your browser.

Inputs

Pre-tariff CIF unit cost at the border.
Ad valorem rate applied at customs.
Distributor and retailer combined markup, applied multiplicatively.
Share of the tariff dollar passed through to the consumer price. The remainder compresses importer margin.
Own-price elasticity, negative. Typical retail goods: minus 0.8 to minus 2.0.
Share of lost demand recaptured by an unaffected supplier (no welfare loss on that share).
Pre-tariff baseline volume.

Outputs

Baseline retail price
$135.00
Pre-tariff, landed cost times markup
New retail price
$155.25
+15.0% vs baseline
Quantity demanded
820,000
minus 18.0% units
Importer margin compression
$13.50/unit
Tariff dollar absorbed by importer
Consumer welfare loss
$18.6M
Annual, partial-equilibrium
Tariff revenue collected
$20.5M
Annual, on imported volume
Deadweight loss
$1.8M
Annual, net of substitution

Formulas

  1. baseline_retail = landed_cost * (1 + markup)
  2. tariff_dollar = landed_cost * tariff_rate
  3. price_increase = tariff_dollar * pass_through * (1 + markup)
  4. new_retail = baseline_retail + price_increase
  5. pct_price_change = (new_retail / baseline_retail) - 1
  6. pct_quantity_change = elasticity * pct_price_change
  7. new_quantity = baseline_volume * (1 + pct_quantity_change)
  8. importer_absorb = tariff_dollar * (1 - pass_through)
  9. consumer_welfare_loss = price_increase * (baseline_volume + new_quantity) / 2
  10. tariff_revenue = tariff_dollar * new_quantity
  11. units_lost = baseline_volume - new_quantity
  12. units_lost_no_sub = units_lost * (1 - substitution_share)
  13. deadweight_loss = 0.5 * price_increase * units_lost_no_sub

Methodology

This is a partial-equilibrium illustrative calculator. It assumes a constant-elasticity demand curve, a single representative importer, and no general-equilibrium feedbacks. Pass-through is treated as a fixed share rather than estimated from microdata, and the substitution share is exogenous. Welfare is computed on a linear approximation of the demand curve over the price change; for large changes, use a proper integral under the demand curve.

For the full Tariff Pass-Through Decomposition framework with Cavallo-Gopinath-Itskhoki style microdata, firm-by-firm exchange-rate and currency-of-invoicing controls, and HS6-level scenario modeling, see the methodology one-pager. Adjacent reading: the Trade and tariff analytics practice and tariff insights. Commissioned engagements add gravity-model substitution, BACI 30-year HS6 panels, and a written proposal within seventy-two hours of the scoping call.

Sources for default values and benchmarks: USITC tariff pass-through literature (Amiti, Redding, Weinstein 2019; Cavallo, Gopinath, Itskhoki, Tang 2021); BLS retail microdata; Comtrade Plus.